Super Nova 2 vs Tukums II Prediction, Tips & Odds
Super Nova 2 vs Tukums II
Match Preview
The model favours Super Nova 2 to win against Tukums II, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Super Nova 2 currently sits in 7th place in the league standings, having accumulated 15 points from their 10 matches. Their season has seen a balanced goal tally, scoring 15 and conceding 15, resulting in a goal difference of zero. Recent form shows some inconsistency, with two wins in their last five outings, but they possess a slight edge in overall performance compared to their opponents. In contrast, Tukums II finds themselves in 11th place, struggling with just 8 points from their 10 matches. Their season has been challenging, highlighted by a goal difference of -11, as they have conceded 26 goals while scoring only 15. Their recent form is also concerning, with only one win and three losses in their last five matches, suggesting difficulties in both defence and attack. The model indicates a win probability favouring Super Nova 2, projecting a score of 2-1. However, a caveat exists: if Tukums II can tighten their defence and find a rhythm in attack, they could pose a threat, especially given their ability to score the same number of goals as Super Nova 2 this season. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as the analysis is based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season, conducted by The Daily Punt Analysis Team.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.7% probability.
Super Nova 2 have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Super Nova 2 win as the most likely scoreline at 12.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Super Nova 2 are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Super Nova 2 vs Tukums II| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.64 | 3.95 | 3.95 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.63 | 3.98 | 4.05 | 1.36 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.60 | |
| 1.62 | 4.20 | 4.00 | 1.33 | 3.00 | 1.36 | 2.88 | |
| 1.65 | 3.88 | 3.79 | 1.37 | 2.73 | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 3.60 | 3.90 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.62 | |
| 1.67 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.40 | 2.75 | — | — | |
| 1.65 | 3.98 | 4.11 | 1.36 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.66 | |
Betano | 1.67 | 4.05 | 3.75 | — | — | — | — |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Super Nova 2 leads 1-0)In the head-to-head record between Super Nova 2 and Tukums II, Super Nova 2 has won 1 match, while Tukums II has not secured any victories, resulting in a record of 1 win and 0 draws. The only encounter ended with a score of 3-1 in favor of Super Nova 2, indicating a relatively comfortable win rather than a tight contest. With only one match played, there is insufficient data to establish a clear trend, but Tukums II will be looking to improve their performance in future meetings.
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 12 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 42 | 11 | 31 | 31 | WWWDW |
| 2 |  Valmiera / BSS | 12 | 9 | 2 | 1 | 32 | 12 | 20 | 29 | WWWDL |
| 3 |  Riga Mariners | 12 | 8 | 4 | 0 | 25 | 10 | 15 | 28 | WWWDW |
| 4 |  Leevon / PPK | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 20 | 15 | 5 | 24 | LLDWW |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 25 | 20 | 5 | 20 | LWDWW |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 12 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 22 | 15 | 7 | 19 | WLLLW |
| 7 | Super Nova 2 | 12 | 5 | 4 | 3 | 19 | 17 | 2 | 19 | DWLDW |
| 12 | Tukums II | 12 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 16 | 31 | -15 | 8 | LLLLD |
| 13 |  Rēzekne FA | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 10 | 36 | -26 | 5 | DLLWL |
| 14 |  Smiltene | 12 | 0 | 4 | 8 | 12 | 33 | -21 | 4 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSuper Nova 2 have won 4 of their last 7 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Super Nova 2 3-1 and drew with Super Nova 2 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 4D 3L from the last 12 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Tukums II have won 3 of their last 11 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Tukums II 2-0 and lost to Super Nova 2 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 5W 3D 14L from the last 22 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSuper Nova 2
No reported absences
Tukums II
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Super Nova 2 average 1.6 goals per match at home; Tukums II 1.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Super Nova 2 have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 42% of their matches and averaging 1.6 goals per game. Super Nova 2 player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
