Mirassol vs Botafogo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Mirassol vs Botafogo
Match Preview
The model favours Mirassol to win this match against Botafogo, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Mirassol currently sits in 16th place in the Serie A standings, having played 26 matches this season. With 7 wins, 7 draws, and 12 losses, their goal difference of -11 reflects some defensive vulnerabilities, but they have managed to score 29 goals. Recent form shows they have struggled, with no wins in their last five matches, but they have earned three draws, indicating they can still compete. Botafogo, positioned 13th in the league with 30 points from 24 matches, has had a slightly better season overall. They have 8 wins, 6 draws, and 10 losses, with a goal difference of -3. However, their recent form has been concerning, with one win and four losses in their last five matches. Their struggle to convert chances into goals has been evident, as they've conceded 40 goals while only scoring 37. The model suggests a win probability of 55% for Mirassol, with a projected score of 2-1. While the home advantage and Botafogo's recent poor form support this prediction, Mirassol's own struggles could create a close contest. For a deeper understanding of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates the fixture through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.5% probability.
Mirassol have been the stronger side, winning 30% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Mirassol are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Mirassol vs Botafogo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.46 | 1.69 | 2.09 | 1.58 | 2.20 | |
| 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.30 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 2.08 | 3.66 | 3.58 | 1.75 | 2.15 | — | — | |
| 2.12 | 3.00 | 2.89 | 1.79 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 3.30 | 3.30 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.60 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.08 | 3.59 | 3.52 | 1.76 | 2.12 | 1.59 | 2.21 | |
Betano | 2.12 | 3.45 | 3.45 | 1.83 | 2.02 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.40 | 1.68 | 2.02 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 3 Meetings (Botafogo leads 1-0)In the last three matches between Mirassol and Botafogo, the record stands at zero wins for Mirassol, two draws, and one win for Botafogo. The scorelines indicate a mix of competitive encounters, with one high-scoring draw (3-3) and a close match ending in a narrow victory for Botafogo (3-2). The two draws suggest that Mirassol has been able to hold Botafogo to stalemates, yet they have not secured a win in this recent history. Overall, the matches have been relatively tight, with both teams capable of scoring, but Mirassol's inability to claim a win remains evident.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 54 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 52 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 | LDWDW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 45 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 43 | WWWDD |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 | WLWWW |
| 13 | Botafogo | 24 | 8 | 6 | 10 | 37 | 40 | -3 | 30 | LLLDW |
| 16 | Mirassol | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 28 | WLDDL |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 14 | LWDLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMirassol have won 9 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Mirassol 1-1 and drew with Mirassol 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 13D 15L from the last 40 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Botafogo have won 8 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Botafogo 3-0 and lost to Cienciano 6-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 8D 13L from the last 38 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedMirassol4-2-3-1Confirmed
Botafogo4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersMirassol
No reported absences
Botafogo
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Felipe Fernandes de Lima has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Felipe Fernandes de Lima to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Mirassol have averaged 4.2 corners per match at home; Botafogo 5.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Mirassol have generated 0.93 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 30% of them. They put 3.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Mirassol player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
