Mirassol vs Palmeiras Prediction, Tips & Odds
Mirassol vs Palmeiras
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The model favours Palmeiras to win this match against Mirassol, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Palmeiras currently sits at the top of the Serie A standings, boasting an impressive record of 14 wins, 6 draws, and just 3 losses from 23 matches. With 40 goals scored and only 19 conceded, they have a strong goal difference of +21, highlighting their offensive prowess and solid defensive capabilities. Although their recent form shows a slight dip, with one win in the last five matches, their overall season performance positions them as clear contenders for the title. On the other hand, Mirassol finds itself in a precarious position, ranked 16th in the league with only 23 points from 21 games. Their record of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 10 losses, combined with a negative goal difference of -6, indicates struggles both in scoring and defending. Recent form has not been encouraging either, as they have failed to secure a win in their last five matches, leading to a concerning atmosphere as they fight to avoid relegation. According to the model, Palmeiras has a win probability of approximately 60%, while Mirassol's chances sit around 20%. It's essential to note that while the data supports Palmeiras as the favourite, any unforeseen circumstances, such as injuries or tactical shifts, could influence the outcome. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Mirassol have kept a clean sheet in 18% of matches. Palmeiras average 1.9 goals per game.
Mirassol manage games at home, conceding just 1.10 goals per match. Palmeiras score 1.86 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.4% probability.
Palmeiras have been the stronger side, winning 67% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Palmeiras are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Mirassol vs Palmeiras| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.70 | 3.30 | 2.02 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| 3.64 | 3.26 | 2.04 | 2.00 | 1.78 | 1.79 | 1.89 | |
| 3.50 | 3.40 | 2.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.75 | 3.32 | 2.08 | 2.04 | 1.81 | — | — | |
| 3.18 | 2.99 | 2.00 | 2.05 | 1.77 | — | — | |
| 3.50 | 3.10 | 2.05 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 3.60 | 3.25 | 2.05 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 3.74 | 3.35 | 2.10 | 2.04 | 1.81 | 1.79 | 1.92 | |
| 3.40 | 3.30 | 2.12 | 2.07 | 1.74 | 1.81 | 1.90 | |
| 3.50 | 3.10 | 2.05 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
Betano | 3.80 | 3.35 | 2.07 | 2.18 | 1.72 | 1.88 | 1.87 |
BetVictor | 3.60 | 3.40 | 2.00 | 1.93 | 1.75 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 9 Meetings (Palmeiras leads 6-2)In the last nine matches between Mirassol and Palmeiras, Palmeiras has won 6 times, Mirassol has won 2, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive but ultimately favorable record for Palmeiras, with three of their wins coming by two-goal margins. Mirassol's victories include a narrow 2-1 win, highlighting that they can compete but have struggled overall. The draw occurred in a tightly contested match, reflecting that while Palmeiras has the upper hand, Mirassol has had moments of success, particularly in recent years.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 54 | WWWLW |
| 2 | Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 52 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 | LDWDW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 45 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 43 | WWWDD |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 | WLWWW |
| 16 | Mirassol | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 28 | WLDDL |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 14 | LWDLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMirassol have won 9 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Mirassol 1-1 and drew with Mirassol 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 13D 15L from the last 40 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Palmeiras have won 12 of their last 21 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Palmeiras 0-0 and drew with Santos 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 28W 11D 3L from the last 42 games (67% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
9 playersMirassol4
Palmeiras5
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. Vitor Gobi has averaged 1.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Mirassol have averaged 4.2 corners per match at home; Palmeiras 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Palmeiras have generated 1.15 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 67% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Palmeiras player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
