Mirassol vs Vitoria Prediction, Tips & Odds
Mirassol vs Vitoria
Match Preview
The model favours Mirassol to win this match against Vitoria, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Mirassol currently sits in 18th place in the league, with a record of 6 wins, 6 draws, and 11 losses from 23 matches. While they have struggled throughout the season, their recent form shows a slight improvement, with four draws in their last five matches. This suggests they are becoming harder to beat, which could be crucial in a match where they need to secure points to escape the relegation zone. On the other hand, Vitoria is in 13th place with 29 points from 25 matches, having recorded 8 wins, 5 draws, and 12 losses. Their recent form is concerning, with only one win in their last five matches and a tendency to concede goals, having allowed 37 goals this season. This defensive vulnerability could be exploited by Mirassol, especially as they look to capitalize on their home advantage. The model gives Mirassol a win probability of around 45%, while Vitoria's chances stand at about 30%. The projected score is 2-1 in favour of Mirassol, with a key market percentage indicating a 55% likelihood of both teams scoring. However, the caveat is that Mirassol must convert their recent draws into wins, and if Vitoria can rediscover their scoring touch, they might upset the prediction. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Mirassol manage games at home, conceding just 1.10 goals per match. Vitoria score 1.52 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.4% probability.
Mirassol have been the stronger side, winning 30% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.4% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Mirassol clean sheets, in line with their 18% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Mirassol are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Mirassol vs Vitoria| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.83 | 3.50 | 4.20 | 1.95 | 1.83 | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
| 1.73 | 3.66 | 4.55 | 1.86 | 1.91 | 1.77 | 1.92 | |
| 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.33 | 1.90 | 1.87 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 1.75 | 3.79 | 4.97 | 1.89 | 1.99 | — | — | |
| 1.73 | 3.19 | 3.91 | 1.89 | 1.93 | — | — | |
| 1.73 | 3.40 | 4.60 | — | — | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 1.73 | 3.60 | 5.00 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.78 | 3.76 | 4.68 | 1.90 | 1.94 | 1.77 | 1.94 | |
| 1.94 | 3.40 | 3.80 | 2.00 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 1.93 | |
Betano | 1.80 | 3.65 | 5.20 | 1.95 | 1.90 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
BetVictor | 1.73 | 3.70 | 4.60 | 1.82 | 1.85 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (Vitoria leads 3-1)In their last six encounters, Vitoria leads with three wins, while Mirassol has one victory, and there have been two draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of tightly contested matches and narrow victories, with Vitoria winning by a single goal on three occasions. Notably, there have been two goalless draws, suggesting a tendency for low-scoring games between these teams. Mirassol's last win came in May 2023, but Vitoria has been more successful historically in this fixture, highlighting a competitive edge.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 54 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 52 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 | LDWDW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 45 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 43 | WWWDD |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 | WLWWW |
| 14 | Vitoria | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 29 | LLWLL |
| 16 | Mirassol | 26 | 7 | 7 | 12 | 29 | 40 | -11 | 28 | WLDDL |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 14 | LWDLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMirassol have won 9 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Mirassol 1-1 and drew with Mirassol 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 13D 15L from the last 40 games (30% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Vitoria have won 4 of their last 22 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 12. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Atletico-MG 2-1 and lost to Vasco DA Gama 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 8D 17L from the last 44 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersMirassol
No reported absences
Vitoria
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Mirassol have averaged 4.2 corners per match at home; Vitoria 4.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Mirassol have generated 0.93 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 30% of them. They put 3.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Mirassol player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
