Molde vs Tromso Prediction, Tips & Odds
Molde vs Tromso
Match Preview
The model favours Tromso to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Tromso currently sits in third place in the Eliteserien, having accumulated 34 points from 16 matches, with an impressive record of 10 wins, 4 draws, and just 2 losses. They have demonstrated a strong goal-scoring ability, netting 32 goals while conceding only 17, giving them a goal difference of +15. Their recent form includes three wins in their last five matches, indicating they are in good shape heading into this fixture. On the other hand, Molde is positioned fifth in the league with 24 points from 15 games, featuring 7 wins, 3 draws, and 5 losses. Their goal difference of +6, with 28 goals scored and 22 conceded, suggests that while they can score, they are also vulnerable defensively. Their recent form has been less encouraging, with one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches, which could impact their confidence against a strong opponent like Tromso. The model output indicates a win probability in favour of Tromso, reflecting their superior position in the standings and recent form. However, Molde's home advantage and potential for an upset cannot be overlooked. For a deeper understanding of this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.0% probability.
Molde have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Molde are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Molde vs Tromso| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.15 | 3.60 | 3.00 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.55 | 2.25 | |
| 2.01 | 3.68 | 3.30 | 1.60 | 2.29 | 1.51 | 2.35 | |
| 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.30 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
| 2.04 | 3.97 | 3.42 | 1.62 | 2.38 | — | — | |
| 2.23 | 3.21 | 2.71 | 1.62 | 2.28 | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.20 | — | — | 1.53 | 2.40 | |
| 2.00 | 3.70 | 3.40 | 1.60 | 2.30 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.06 | 3.76 | 3.38 | 1.62 | 2.32 | 1.51 | 2.39 | |
| 2.10 | 3.50 | 3.15 | 1.65 | 2.07 | 1.54 | 2.28 | |
| 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.20 | 1.60 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.40 | |
Betano | 2.05 | 3.65 | 3.25 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.32 |
BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.60 | 3.30 | 1.58 | 2.19 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Molde leads 6-3)In the last ten matches between Molde and Tromso, Molde has won 6 times, while Tromso has secured 3 victories, with no draws recorded. The scorelines indicate a mix of outcomes, including a couple of high-scoring games, such as Molde's 5-3 win and Tromso's 4-1 victory, suggesting that while Molde has the upper hand overall, Tromso has also managed to achieve significant wins. However, Molde has shown a tendency for more consistent performances, particularly with several wins by at least two goals. The most recent match saw Tromso's last win over Molde occurring in 2023, marking a competitive but ultimately favorable record for Molde.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 17 | 13 | 2 | 2 | 43 | 12 | 31 | 41 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 17 | 13 | 1 | 3 | 40 | 17 | 23 | 40 | LWWDW |
| 3 | Tromso | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 34 | 20 | 14 | 34 | LWWWD |
| 4 | Molde | 17 | 8 | 3 | 6 | 32 | 26 | 6 | 27 | WLDWL |
| 5 |  Lillestrom | 17 | 8 | 2 | 7 | 23 | 21 | 2 | 26 | DLLLW |
| 6 |  Brann | 17 | 8 | 1 | 8 | 36 | 27 | 9 | 25 | WWLWW |
| 14 |  Kristiansund BK | 17 | 4 | 3 | 10 | 15 | 27 | -12 | 15 | LWLLD |
| 15 |  Aalesund | 17 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 27 | 41 | -14 | 15 | DDLDL |
| 16 |  Start | 17 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 16 | 38 | -22 | 10 | LLWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMolde have won 9 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Molde 3-3 and lost to Molde 1-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 6D 10L from the last 27 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Tromso have won 6 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Tromso 3-2 and beat CFR 1907 Cluj 0-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 6D 8L from the last 32 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
9 playersMolde6
Tromso3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
E. Eskas has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by E. Eskas to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Molde have averaged 4.8 corners per match at home; Tromso 4.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Molde have generated 1.77 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 5.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Molde player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
