Monza vs Sassuolo Prediction, Tips & Odds
Monza vs Sassuolo
Match Preview
The model favours Sassuolo to win against Monza, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Sassuolo currently sits in 10th place in the Serie A standings, having accumulated 4 points from their first three matches. Their season has been a mixed bag, with one win, one draw, and one loss. Key statistics include scoring 5 goals while conceding 5, indicating a balanced offensive and defensive performance thus far. On the other hand, Monza finds itself in a precarious position at 17th in the standings, with only 1 point from their opening three games. Their season has been challenging, as they have yet to secure a victory, recording 0 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses. They have scored 4 goals but allowed 8, demonstrating significant defensive vulnerabilities that could be exploited by Sassuolo. The model gives Sassuolo a win probability of approximately 55%, with a projected score of 2-1. One caveat is that if Monza can improve their defensive organization, they might be able to turn the tide in their favour. The full methodology used to reach this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.2% probability.
Monza have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Monza are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Monza vs Sassuolo| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.79 | 3.34 | 2.67 | 1.78 | 2.06 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.63 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 2.81 | 3.44 | 2.62 | 1.77 | 2.15 | — | — | |
| 2.66 | 3.22 | 2.54 | 1.77 | 2.12 | — | — | |
| 2.62 | 3.10 | 2.50 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.25 | |
| 2.60 | 3.40 | 2.60 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.84 | 3.40 | 2.72 | 1.84 | 2.12 | 1.57 | 2.28 | |
Betano | 2.67 | 3.35 | 2.65 | 1.78 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.32 |
BetVictor | 2.63 | 3.50 | 2.55 | 1.71 | 1.98 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (Monza leads 3-0)In the last five matches between Monza and Sassuolo, Monza has won 3 times, with 2 matches ending in draws, while Sassuolo has not secured a win. The scorelines indicate a generally competitive series, with several narrow victories for Monza, including a 1-0 win and a 2-1 win. The only draw occurred in their most recent friendly, finishing 2-2. Sassuolo's inability to win in this stretch highlights a clear disadvantage, with their last victory over Monza dating back to before this sample, suggesting a challenging pattern for them in recent encounters.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 6 |  Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 0 | 4 | DWL |
| 17 | Monza | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 1 | DLL |
| 18 |  Venezia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonMonza have won 3 of their last 8 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Monza 2-3 and beat Monza 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 3D 5L from the last 14 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Sassuolo have won 2 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Atalanta 2-1 and lost to FC Augsburg 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 5D 14L from the last 30 games (37% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedMonza3-4-2-1Confirmed
Sassuolo4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersMonza
No reported absences
Sassuolo
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. Perenzoni has averaged 2.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Monza have averaged 4.4 corners per match at home; Sassuolo 3.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Monza have generated 1.18 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 5.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Monza player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
