NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior Prediction, Tips & Odds
NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior
Match Preview
The model favours Excelsior to win this match against NEC Nijmegen, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Excelsior currently sits at the top of the Eredivisie standings after one match, having secured a comprehensive victory with a goal difference of +4. Their attacking prowess is evident, with four goals scored and none conceded, indicating a strong start to the season. In contrast, NEC Nijmegen finds themselves in 15th place after their opening match, suffering a loss that has left them without any points. Their recent form highlights struggles, with only one win in their last five matches and a goal difference of -1, suggesting defensive vulnerabilities that could be exploited by a high-flying Excelsior side. The model indicates a win probability of 70% for Excelsior, alongside the projected score of 2-0. One key market statistic is that Excelsior is favoured by a significant margin in the betting lines. However, a potential caveat is that NEC Nijmegen could improve defensively, making it challenging for Excelsior to maintain their perfect record. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, utilizing an in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.0% probability.
NEC Nijmegen have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 NEC Nijmegen win as the most likely scoreline at 13.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature NEC Nijmegen clean sheets, in line with their 16% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. NEC Nijmegen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
NEC Nijmegen vs Excelsior| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.46 | 4.70 | 5.80 | 1.48 | 2.65 | 1.60 | 2.20 | |
| 1.47 | 4.65 | 5.65 | 1.40 | 2.57 | 1.55 | 2.26 | |
| 1.44 | 4.75 | 6.00 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.50 | 4.83 | 5.50 | 1.45 | 2.75 | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.40 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
| 1.44 | 4.50 | 6.25 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.51 | 4.78 | 5.81 | 1.40 | 2.57 | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 1.46 | 4.80 | 5.60 | 1.42 | 2.80 | 1.54 | 2.32 | |
| 1.44 | 4.40 | 5.00 | 1.44 | 2.63 | 1.57 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 1.50 | 4.70 | 6.00 | 1.47 | 2.77 | 1.57 | 2.32 |
BetVictor | 1.45 | 4.75 | 6.00 | 1.40 | 2.75 | 1.50 | 2.38 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (NEC Nijmegen leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between NEC Nijmegen and Excelsior, NEC has won 5 times, Excelsior has won 3 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a mixed but generally favorable record for NEC, with several heavy wins, including a notable 5-0 victory. However, the matches have also featured close contests, such as a 3-4 loss for NEC and a 2-1 victory for Excelsior. Overall, while NEC Nijmegen has had the upper hand historically, the presence of competitive games suggests that Excelsior is capable of challenging them effectively.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 7 | WWD |
| 3 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 7 | WDW |
| 4 |  Feyenoord | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 7 | WDW |
| 5 |  Groningen | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 6 | LWW |
| 6 |  Ajax | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | DW |
| 10 | Excelsior | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | LW |
| 11 | NEC Nijmegen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 3 | WL |
| 16 |  Willem II | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 0 | LL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -7 | 0 | LLL |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNEC Nijmegen have won 9 of their last 19 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Bodo/Glimt 1-3 and beat Olympiakos Piraeus 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 8D 10L from the last 31 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Excelsior have won 8 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Cambuur 0-4 and beat De Graafschap 1-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 7D 8L from the last 25 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNEC Nijmegen
No reported absences
Excelsior
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
NEC Nijmegen have averaged 7.2 corners per match at home; Excelsior 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
NEC Nijmegen have generated 2.44 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 6.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. NEC Nijmegen player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
