NEOM vs Al-Fayha Prediction, Tips & Odds
NEOM vs Al-Fayha
Match Preview
The model favours NEOM to win against Al-Fayha, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. NEOM enters the new season with a solid recent form, having secured three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. This momentum could provide them with the confidence needed to start strong against Al-Fayha, who are currently positioned lower in the standings. In contrast, Al-Fayha has struggled recently, recording four losses and one draw in their last five matches. This poor form could weigh heavily on their performance as they begin the season. With both teams starting from scratch in the standings, Al-Fayha will need to overcome their recent difficulties to avoid a repeat of last season's struggles. The model suggests a win probability of 60% for NEOM, with a projected score of 2-1. However, one caveat is that NEOM's recent form may not translate seamlessly into the new season, as they will need to adapt to the pressures of a fresh campaign. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, and it is based on an in-house model that analyzes expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.4% probability.
NEOM have been the stronger side, winning 39% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 NEOM win as the most likely scoreline at 15.4% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature NEOM clean sheets, in line with their 30% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. NEOM are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
NEOM vs Al-Fayha| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.70 | 3.65 | 4.75 | 1.85 | 1.93 | 1.73 | 1.95 | |
| 1.61 | 3.65 | 4.65 | 1.81 | 1.89 | 1.78 | 1.88 | |
| 1.67 | 3.75 | 4.75 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 1.68 | 3.85 | 4.98 | 1.87 | 1.97 | — | — | |
| 1.65 | 3.42 | 4.30 | 1.91 | 1.93 | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 3.40 | 4.50 | — | — | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 1.65 | 3.70 | 4.75 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.83 | 1.83 | |
| 1.67 | 3.78 | 4.82 | 1.83 | 1.91 | 1.78 | 1.91 | |
| 1.64 | 3.70 | 4.50 | 1.79 | 1.97 | 1.74 | 1.96 | |
| 1.62 | 3.40 | 4.50 | 1.80 | 1.85 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
Betano | 1.75 | 3.75 | 4.80 | 1.88 | 1.98 | 1.78 | 1.95 |
Superbet | 1.77 | 3.80 | 4.50 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.82 | 1.92 |
BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.70 | 4.75 | 1.80 | 1.87 | 1.78 | 1.91 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 2 Meetings (NEOM leads 1-0)In the last two meetings between NEOM and Al-Fayha, NEOM has won once, and there has been one draw, while Al-Fayha has not recorded a win. The scorelines indicate a relatively tight contest, with one match finishing 1-0 in favor of NEOM and the other ending in a 1-1 draw. This suggests that while NEOM has had the upper hand, the encounters have not featured heavy scoring or lopsided results. Al-Fayha's inability to secure a victory in these recent fixtures highlights a challenge for them moving forward.
Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Al-Qadisiyah FC | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 2 |  Al-Hazm | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Al-Ahli Jeddah | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 4 |  Al-Hilal Saudi FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 |  Al-Ettifaq | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 |  Al-Ittihad FC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 13 | NEOM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 14 | Al-Fayha | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 16 |  Abha | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 17 |  Al Diriyah | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 18 |  Al Shabab | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNEOM have won 5 of their last 10 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat NEOM 4-1 and drew with NEOM 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 7D 7L from the last 23 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Al-Fayha have won 2 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Al-Fayha 2-0 and drew with KVC Westerlo 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 4D 11L from the last 22 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNEOM
No reported absences
Al-Fayha
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
NEOM have averaged 4.4 corners per match at home; Al-Fayha 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
NEOM have generated 1.59 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 39% of them. They put 5.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. NEOM player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
