Newcastle vs Bournemouth Prediction, Tips & Odds
Newcastle vs Bournemouth
Match Preview
The model favours Bournemouth to win this match against Newcastle, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Bournemouth enters the season with a stronger recent form, having achieved three wins in their last five matches. This momentum could play a crucial role as they look to build on their previous successes. Additionally, their position just above Newcastle in the standings may provide them with a psychological edge. Newcastle, on the other hand, has struggled lately, recording only one win in their last five matches. Their recent form of one win, one draw, and three losses suggests they might still be finding their rhythm as the season begins. With a league position of 12th, they will need to turn their fortunes around quickly to avoid falling further behind in the standings. The model assigns a win probability of 55% to Bournemouth, compared to 25% for Newcastle, with a significant market sentiment leaning towards Bournemouth as well. However, a potential caveat for Bournemouth is that they must maintain their form against a Newcastle side that could surprise if they find their stride. The full method behind this prediction is explained in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 14.5% probability.
Newcastle have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 14.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Newcastle are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Newcastle vs Bournemouth| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.18 | 3.65 | 2.98 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.48 | 2.55 | |
| 2.27 | 3.75 | 3.08 | 1.60 | 2.38 | 1.49 | 2.44 | |
| 2.20 | 3.75 | 2.88 | 1.57 | 2.25 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 2.25 | 3.82 | 3.05 | 1.60 | 2.43 | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.23 | 2.75 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.60 | 2.90 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.40 | |
| 2.15 | 3.50 | 3.00 | 1.62 | 2.30 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 2.31 | 3.81 | 3.13 | 1.65 | 2.45 | 1.49 | 2.48 | |
| 2.23 | 3.60 | 3.00 | 1.66 | 2.20 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
Betano | 2.22 | 3.60 | 3.10 | 1.62 | 2.37 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.70 | 2.90 | 1.56 | 2.23 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Bournemouth leads 3-1)In the last 10 matches between Newcastle and Bournemouth, Newcastle has won 1, drawn 6, and Bournemouth has won 3. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with six matches ending in draws and no side achieving a dominant streak. Notably, Bournemouth has secured three victories, including a significant 4-1 win. The recent encounters have tended to be low-scoring, with several matches ending in draws or narrow margins. The last time Newcastle won against Bournemouth was in December 2022, suggesting that Bournemouth has had the upper hand more recently in this matchup.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Manchester City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  Arsenal | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  Hull City | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 4 |  Chelsea | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 5 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 5 |  Brentford | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 4 | DW |
| 6 | Newcastle | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 4 | WD |
| 14 | Bournemouth | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1 | DL |
| 18 |  Crystal Palace | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -5 | 0 | LL |
| 19 |  Aston Villa | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | LL |
| 20 |  Tottenham | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNewcastle have won 6 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat Newcastle 3-2 and drew with Newcastle 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 5D 13L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Bournemouth have won 6 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Manchester City 2-1 and lost to FSV Mainz 05 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 13D 2L from the last 26 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNewcastle
No reported absences
Bournemouth
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Newcastle average 1.8 goals per match at home; Bournemouth 2.0 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Newcastle have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 40% of their matches and averaging 1.8 goals per game. Newcastle player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
