Panetolikos vs PAOK Prediction, Tips & Odds
Panetolikos vs PAOK
Match Preview
The model favours PAOK to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Both teams enter this match with identical records of two wins from two matches, but PAOK holds a superior goal difference, having scored six goals and conceded just one, compared to Panetolikos's five goals scored and one conceded. PAOK's strong start to the season reflects their offensive prowess and solid defensive structure, making them a formidable opponent. Panetolikos currently sits in fourth place, having a positive goal difference of four. Their recent form shows a mix of results, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. While they have shown resilience, the inconsistency in form may be a concern as they face a strong PAOK side. They will need to maintain their attacking momentum while tightening their defense to compete effectively. According to the model, PAOK has a win probability of 55%, while Panetolikos stands at 25% with a 20% chance of a draw. One key market to note is the odds on PAOK winning outright, which reflect their status as the slight favourite. However, a potential caveat for PAOK is their recent form, which has included draws against lower-ranked teams, highlighting that they must stay focused to secure the points. The full prediction methodology is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.4% probability.
PAOK have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-1 PAOK win as the most likely scoreline at 15.4% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. PAOK are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Panetolikos vs PAOK| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 6.20 | 4.05 | 1.50 | 1.77 | 1.98 | 1.85 | 1.83 | |
| 6.50 | 4.10 | 1.47 | 1.80 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.87 | |
| 6.78 | 4.25 | 1.51 | 1.81 | 2.06 | — | — | |
| 5.51 | 3.79 | 1.47 | 1.85 | 1.99 | — | — | |
| 6.00 | 3.90 | 1.50 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 6.25 | 4.20 | 1.53 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 6.23 | 4.05 | 1.51 | 1.77 | 1.98 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
Betano | 6.10 | 4.05 | 1.57 | 1.85 | 2.02 | 1.87 | 1.88 |
BetVictor | 6.00 | 4.10 | 1.50 | 1.76 | 1.92 | 1.85 | 1.83 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (PAOK leads 9-0)In the last 10 matches between Panetolikos and PAOK, Panetolikos has not recorded a win, with 1 draw and PAOK winning 9 times. The scorelines indicate a dominant performance by PAOK, highlighted by several heavy victories, including a 4-0 win in a friendly and multiple 2-0 and 3-0 defeats for Panetolikos. The only draw occurred in September 2025, suggesting that matches tend to favor PAOK significantly. Panetolikos has not won against PAOK in this stretch, indicating a pronounced struggle in this fixture historically.
Super League 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AEK Athens FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 7 | WDW |
| 2 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | DWW |
| 3 | PAOK | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | WW |
| 4 | Panetolikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 5 |  Aris Thessalonikis | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 6 | LWW |
| 6 |  Panathinaikos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 12 |  Kalamata | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | LL |
| 13 |  Asteras Tripolis | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | LL |
| 14 |  Levadiakos | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPanetolikos have won 4 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Kalamata 2-0 and beat Asteras Tripolis 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 7D 13L from the last 27 games (26% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
PAOK have won 4 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Atromitos 1-2 and lost to Brann 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 9D 8L from the last 30 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersPanetolikos
No reported absences
PAOK
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Konstantinos Katikos has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Konstantinos Katikos to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Panetolikos have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; PAOK 3.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
PAOK have generated 1.62 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 3.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. PAOK player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
