Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long Prediction, Tips & Odds
Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long
Match Preview
The model favours Chongqing Tongliang Long to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Chongqing currently sits in second place in the league, with 29 points from 20 matches, showcasing a competitive season thus far. Their goal difference of +1 indicates a more solid defensive performance compared to their opponents, while their form, with one win and two draws in the last five matches, suggests they are capable of grinding out results, even if they have faltered recently. In contrast, Qingdao Youth Island occupies fifth place with 28 points. Their season has been marked by inconsistency, as reflected in their record of six wins, ten draws, and four losses. The recent form of two wins, one draw, and two losses indicates they are struggling to maintain momentum, particularly when it comes to scoring goals, having netted only 24 times this season. The model gives Chongqing a win probability of approximately 52%, while Qingdao has a 24% chance of victory, leaving a 24% probability for a draw. A key market percentage to consider is the odds for Chongqing to win outright. However, a potential caveat is that if Qingdao can leverage their home advantage effectively, they may surprise their visitors. For more details on the methodology behind this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is brought to you by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Qingdao Youth Island have kept a clean sheet in 22% of matches. Chongqing Tongliang Long average 1.1 goals per game.
Qingdao Youth Island manage games at home, conceding just 1.31 goals per match. Chongqing Tongliang Long score 1.12 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.5% probability.
Qingdao Youth Island have been the stronger side, winning 31% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.5% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Qingdao Youth Island clean sheets, in line with their 22% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Qingdao Youth Island are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Qingdao Youth Island vs Chongqing Tongliang Long| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.06 | 3.15 | 3.45 | 2.15 | 1.65 | 1.85 | 1.80 | |
| 2.08 | 3.15 | 3.56 | 2.21 | 1.63 | 1.90 | 1.78 | |
| 2.05 | 3.00 | 3.80 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 2.17 | 3.22 | 3.74 | 2.29 | 1.65 | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.01 | 3.00 | 1.92 | 1.80 | — | — | |
| 2.10 | 3.00 | 3.50 | — | — | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
| 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.60 | 2.15 | 1.67 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 2.14 | 3.24 | 3.66 | 2.25 | 1.66 | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| 2.10 | 3.25 | 3.30 | 1.98 | 1.70 | 1.76 | 1.91 | |
| 2.10 | 3.00 | 3.50 | 2.20 | 1.62 | 1.91 | 1.83 | |
Betano | 2.07 | 3.15 | 3.55 | 2.15 | 1.65 | 1.90 | 1.82 |
Superbet | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.35 | 1.92 | 1.78 | 1.75 | 1.97 |
BetVictor | 2.05 | 3.13 | 3.50 | 2.15 | 1.60 | 1.93 | 1.78 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 2 Meetings (Chongqing Tongliang Long leads 1-0)In the last two matches between Qingdao Youth Island and Chongqing Tongliang Long, the record stands at 0 wins for Qingdao, 1 draw, and 1 win for Chongqing. The scorelines indicate a slight advantage for Chongqing, with their one victory coming by a 2-0 margin, while the other match ended in a 1-1 draw. This suggests that while Qingdao has managed to secure a draw, they have not yet defeated Chongqing in recent encounters. Overall, the head-to-head results show a competitive but slightly favorable position for Chongqing.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 30 | 21 | 51 | WLWLD |
| 2 |  Beijing Guoan | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 37 | DDWWW |
| 3 | Qingdao Youth Island | 25 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 37 | DWDDW |
| 4 |  Dalian Zhixing | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 37 | DWDLW |
| 5 |  Shandong Luneng | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 36 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Yunnan Yukun | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 51 | -2 | 35 | LDWWL |
| 8 | Chongqing Tongliang Long | 25 | 7 | 10 | 8 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 31 | DLDLL |
| 14 |  Tianjin Teda | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 19 | DDLLW |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 19 | WDLDW |
| 16 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 25 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 33 | 51 | -18 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonQingdao Youth Island have won 5 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 9 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Shandong Luneng 2-0 and drew with Chongqing Tongliang Long 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 14D 8L from the last 32 games (31% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Chongqing Tongliang Long have won 7 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Qingdao Youth Island 0-0 and drew with Chengdu Better City 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 11D 8L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersQingdao Youth Island
No reported absences
Chongqing Tongliang Long
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Qingdao Youth Island have averaged 3.8 corners per match at home; Chongqing Tongliang Long 3.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Qingdao Youth Island have generated 1.32 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 31% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Qingdao Youth Island player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
