Riga FC II vs Smiltene Prediction, Tips & Odds
Riga FC II vs Smiltene
Match Preview
The model favours Riga FC II to win against Smiltene, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Riga FC II currently sits in 10th place in the league, having played 9 matches with a record of 2 wins, 1 draw, and 6 losses. Their goal-scoring has been a challenge, with 12 goals scored and 21 conceded, resulting in a goal difference of -9. Despite a rough patch recently, including four losses in their last five matches, they managed a win which may provide a much-needed boost. On the other hand, Smiltene is struggling at the bottom of the table in 12th place, with no wins in their 9 matches so far. They have recorded 4 draws and 5 losses, scoring only 9 goals while conceding 25, leading to a goal difference of -16. Their recent form shows only one win and a draw in the last five matches, indicating difficulties in converting chances into victories. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Riga FC II, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat is Riga FC II's inconsistency, as they have shown vulnerability in defence which could allow Smiltene to capitalise. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by the SureTipsPro Analysis Team, utilising an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.5% probability.
Riga FC II have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Riga FC II win as the most likely scoreline at 13.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Riga FC II are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Riga FC II vs Smiltene| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.64 | 3.95 | 3.95 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.63 | 4.33 | 3.72 | 1.32 | 2.88 | 1.38 | 2.67 | |
| 1.62 | 4.10 | 4.00 | 1.36 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 1.50 | 3.76 | 4.12 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.70 | 3.90 | 3.50 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.62 | |
| 1.70 | 4.00 | 3.60 | 1.50 | 2.50 | — | — | |
| 1.65 | 4.33 | 3.78 | 1.32 | 2.88 | 1.38 | 2.74 | |
Betano | 1.72 | 4.15 | 3.50 | — | — | — | — |
Superbet | 1.70 | 4.65 | 3.25 | 1.32 | 2.87 | 1.42 | 2.67 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
1. Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Metta / LU | 10 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 36 | 9 | 27 | 25 | WDWWL |
| 2 |  Leevon / PPK | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 24 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Valmiera / BSS | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 26 | 11 | 15 | 23 | WDLDW |
| 4 |  Riga Mariners | 10 | 6 | 4 | 0 | 19 | 10 | 9 | 22 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  JDFS Alberts | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 21 | 14 | 7 | 17 | DWWLD |
| 6 |  Mārupe | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 20 | 12 | 8 | 16 | LLWWW |
| 9 | Riga FC II | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 14 | 21 | -7 | 10 | WLLLL |
| 12 |  JFK Ventspils | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 6 | WLLDL |
| 13 | Smiltene | 10 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 9 | 27 | -18 | 4 | LDLLL |
| 14 |  Rēzekne FA | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 31 | -24 | 4 | LWLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonRiga FC II have won 7 of their last 10 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Smiltene 2-0 and lost to Mārupe 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 2D 10L from the last 20 games (40% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Smiltene have won 2 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Smiltene 2-0 and beat Parks 1-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 2W 7D 12L from the last 21 games (10% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersRiga FC II
No reported absences
Smiltene
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Riga FC II average 1.9 goals per match at home; Smiltene 1.3 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
Riga FC II have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 40% of their matches and averaging 1.9 goals per game. Riga FC II player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
