San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC Prediction, Tips & Odds
San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC
Match Preview
The model favours San Jose Earthquakes to win against Orlando City SC, with a projected scoreline of 3-1. San Jose currently sits in a strong second position in the league, having accumulated 32 points from 15 matches. Their season has been characterized by a potent attack, scoring 34 goals, and a solid defence, conceding only 15. Despite a recent dip in form, with just one win in their last five matches, their overall performance this season indicates they are a formidable opponent. On the other hand, Orlando City SC is struggling in 12th position, with only 14 points from 15 matches. Their season has been marked by inconsistency, managing just four wins and suffering nine losses, which has resulted in a negative goal difference of -21. Recent performances show they have won two of their last five matches, but overall, their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed, leading to 44 goals conceded. The model's output suggests a win probability of around 65% for San Jose, with a projected score of 3-1. However, if San Jose's recent form continues to falter, or if Orlando manages to capitalize on any defensive lapses, the match could be closer than anticipated. For a detailed breakdown of the prediction methodology, including expected goals and actual results, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that leverages these metrics to assess fixtures comprehensively.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.7% probability.
San Jose Earthquakes have been the stronger side, winning 59% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 San Jose Earthquakes win as the most likely scoreline at 12.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. San Jose Earthquakes are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
San Jose Earthquakes vs Orlando City SC| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.63 | 4.40 | 4.35 | 1.35 | 3.10 | 1.38 | 2.80 | |
| 1.62 | 4.55 | 4.25 | 1.27 | 3.18 | 1.35 | 2.88 | |
| 1.62 | 4.40 | 4.40 | 1.30 | 3.30 | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 1.68 | 4.71 | 4.37 | 1.34 | 3.41 | — | — | |
| 1.53 | 4.55 | 4.75 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 4.20 | 4.00 | — | — | 1.36 | 2.80 | |
| 1.67 | 4.50 | 4.33 | 1.33 | 3.40 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 1.61 | 4.60 | 4.50 | 1.32 | 3.30 | 1.36 | 2.88 | |
Betano | 1.70 | 4.65 | 4.55 | 1.36 | 3.20 | 1.39 | 2.85 |
Superbet | 1.54 | 4.90 | 5.10 | 1.35 | 3.25 | 1.44 | 2.67 |
BetVictor | 1.62 | 4.50 | 4.33 | 1.30 | 3.30 | 1.33 | 3.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (Orlando City SC leads 3-1)In the last seven matches between San Jose Earthquakes and Orlando City SC, each team has won three times, with one match ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a mix of outcomes, including a significant 5-0 victory for Orlando City SC, while San Jose's largest win was 3-0. The matches have generally been competitive, with three draws reflecting a balanced contest. Notably, San Jose has not won against Orlando in their last four encounters, which could suggest a shift in momentum favoring Orlando City SC during this period.
Major League Soccer Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Nashville SC | 18 | 12 | 4 | 2 | 35 | 14 | 21 | 40 | DLWWW |
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 38 | 17 | 21 | 34 | DDLWL |
| 2 |  Los Angeles FC | 19 | 10 | 4 | 5 | 35 | 19 | 16 | 34 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter Miami | 18 | 11 | 5 | 2 | 45 | 32 | 13 | 38 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  New England Revolution | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 28 | 23 | 5 | 30 | LDWDL |
| 3 | San Jose Earthquakes | 18 | 10 | 3 | 5 | 37 | 24 | 13 | 33 | LDLWL |
| 10 | Orlando City SC | 18 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 30 | 47 | -17 | 20 | LWWLD |
| 14 |  CF Montreal | 18 | 4 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 35 | -11 | 16 | DLLDD |
| 15 |  Atlanta United FC | 18 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 19 | 33 | -14 | 12 | LLDLL |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 18 | 4 | 2 | 12 | 18 | 46 | -28 | 14 | LLWLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSan Jose Earthquakes have won 10 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with San Jose Earthquakes 1-1 and lost to San Jose Earthquakes 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 4D 7L from the last 27 games (59% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Orlando City SC have won 5 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Orlando City SC 1-2 and lost to New York Red Bulls 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 3D 15L from the last 29 games (38% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSan Jose Earthquakes4-2-3-1Confirmed
Orlando City SC4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersSan Jose Earthquakes4
Orlando City SC4
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
San Jose Earthquakes have averaged 6.4 corners per match at home; Orlando City SC 4.1 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
San Jose Earthquakes have generated 1.98 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 59% of them. They put 5.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. San Jose Earthquakes player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
