Santos vs Cruzeiro Prediction, Tips & Odds
Santos vs Cruzeiro
Match Preview
The model favours Cruzeiro to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1 against Santos. Cruzeiro currently sits in 5th place in the Serie A standings, having played 25 matches this season. With 11 wins, 6 draws, and 8 losses, they have accumulated 39 points. Their goal difference of -1 reflects a competitive but challenging defensive record, with 35 goals scored and 36 conceded. Recent form shows they have secured two wins in their last five matches, indicating some inconsistency but also the ability to bounce back. On the other hand, Santos is positioned 14th in the league, with 29 points from 24 matches. Their record of 7 wins, 8 draws, and 9 losses shows they have struggled for consistency, highlighted by a negative goal difference of -2. Santos has had a mixed bag of results recently, managing two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. This suggests they can be competitive but often find it difficult to maintain momentum. The model gives Cruzeiro a win probability of approximately 55%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, Santos could capitalize on their home advantage, which might disrupt Cruzeiro’s plans. This prediction is based on an in-house model from The Daily Punt Analysis Team that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Santos manage games at home, conceding just 1.16 goals per match. Cruzeiro score 1.34 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.3% probability.
Santos have been the stronger side, winning 35% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Santos are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Santos vs Cruzeiro| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.45 | 3.30 | 2.80 | 1.95 | 1.83 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.73 | 3.34 | 2.46 | 1.82 | 1.95 | 1.62 | 2.14 | |
| 2.63 | 3.40 | 2.45 | 1.90 | 1.90 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 2.84 | 3.42 | 2.57 | 1.89 | 1.99 | — | — | |
| 2.71 | 3.22 | 2.32 | 1.85 | 1.99 | — | — | |
| 2.75 | 3.20 | 2.40 | — | — | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
| 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.55 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.81 | 3.44 | 2.53 | 1.86 | 1.99 | 1.62 | 2.17 | |
| 2.60 | 3.30 | 2.60 | 1.92 | 1.87 | 1.68 | 2.06 | |
Betano | 2.87 | 3.50 | 2.55 | 1.88 | 1.98 | 1.67 | 2.12 |
BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.40 | 2.45 | 1.79 | 1.88 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Cruzeiro leads 5-4)The head-to-head record between Santos and Cruzeiro over the last ten matches shows Santos with 4 wins, Cruzeiro with 5 wins, and 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several tight contests; however, Cruzeiro has recorded three wins by two-goal margins, suggesting some lopsided results. Notably, Santos secured a heavy 4-1 victory in 2019, while Cruzeiro's latest match in September 2023 resulted in a 3-0 win, highlighting their recent strength. Santos last won against Cruzeiro in December 2025, pointing to a shift in dominance in this matchup.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 54 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 52 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 | LDWDW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 45 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 43 | WWWDD |
| 6 | Cruzeiro | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 | WLWWW |
| 12 | Santos | 25 | 8 | 8 | 9 | 37 | 38 | -1 | 32 | WWDWL |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 14 | LWDLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSantos have won 10 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 9 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Palmeiras 0-0 and drew with Mirassol 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 16D 12L from the last 43 games (35% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Cruzeiro have won 7 of their last 21 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Atletico-MG 2-1 and lost to Vasco DA Gama 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 15D 9L from the last 44 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSantos4-2-3-1Confirmed
Cruzeiro4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersSantos
No reported absences
Cruzeiro
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Santos have averaged 5.5 corners per match at home; Cruzeiro 4.7 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.1 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Santos have generated 1.88 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 35% of them. They put 4.8 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Santos player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
