Sassuolo vs Juventus Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sassuolo vs Juventus
Match Preview
The model favours Juventus to win this match against Sassuolo, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Juventus currently sits in second place in the Serie A standings, having won both of their opening matches. Their strong start has been underpinned by a solid defensive record, with no goals conceded so far this season. They have scored three goals, demonstrating their attacking efficiency as well. Sassuolo, on the other hand, finds themselves in 12th place after two matches, with one win and one loss. They have managed to score three goals but have also conceded three, highlighting a lack of defensive stability. Their recent form shows two wins and three losses in their last five matches, indicating inconsistency that could be detrimental against a team like Juventus. According to the model, Juventus has a strong win probability in this fixture, reflecting their solid start to the season and overall form. However, if Sassuolo can leverage their home advantage and improve their defensive performance, they could pose a challenge. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyses expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.0% probability.
Juventus have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 0-1 Juventus win as the most likely scoreline at 15.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Juventus are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sassuolo vs Juventus| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 6.00 | 3.85 | 1.55 | 1.83 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.90 | |
| 5.60 | 4.05 | 1.65 | 1.80 | 2.03 | 1.79 | 1.92 | |
| 5.50 | 3.80 | 1.62 | 1.65 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 5.71 | 3.98 | 1.65 | 1.83 | 2.06 | — | — | |
| 4.40 | 3.45 | 1.64 | 1.84 | 2.02 | — | — | |
| 5.00 | 3.75 | 1.62 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 5.25 | 4.00 | 1.62 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 5.69 | 4.12 | 1.68 | 1.86 | 2.10 | 1.79 | 1.94 | |
| 5.60 | 3.90 | 1.58 | 1.83 | 1.94 | 1.81 | 1.86 | |
Betano | 5.40 | 4.05 | 1.70 | 1.80 | 2.05 | 1.78 | 1.98 |
BetVictor | 5.25 | 4.00 | 1.62 | 1.73 | 1.95 | 1.75 | 1.95 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Juventus leads 6-3)In the last 10 matches between Sassuolo and Juventus, Juventus has won 6 times, Sassuolo has won 3 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a mix of results, with several matches being closely contested, such as the 1-1 draw and Sassuolo's 4-2 victory. However, Juventus secured heavy wins with scores of 3-0 on multiple occasions, showcasing their dominance in several fixtures. Sassuolo's last victory against Juventus was in 2023, suggesting they have had some recent success, but overall, Juventus holds a stronger historical advantage in this matchup.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 3 | 11 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 8 | 7 | 13 | DWWWW |
| 3 |  Lazio | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 13 | WDWWW |
| 4 |  Cagliari | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 12 | WWWLW |
| 5 |  AC Milan | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 4 | 6 | 11 | WDDWW |
| 6 |  Frosinone | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 5 | 10 | WDWWL |
| 7 | Juventus | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 10 | WLDWW |
| 10 | Sassuolo | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 9 | 0 | 7 | LWDWL |
| 18 |  Bologna | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 2 | DLDLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 10 | -7 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 20 |  Venezia | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 0 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSassuolo have won 10 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sassuolo 3-2 and drew with Sassuolo 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 15L from the last 33 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Juventus have won 7 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Sassuolo 3-2 and beat Frosinone 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 9D 8L from the last 33 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSassuolo4-3-3Confirmed
Juventus4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
16 playersSassuolo7
Juventus9
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
J. L. Sacchi has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by J. L. Sacchi to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Sassuolo have averaged 3.7 corners per match at home; Juventus 5.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Juventus have generated 1.47 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 4.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Juventus player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
