Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye Prediction, Tips & Odds
Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye
Match Preview
The model favours Shanghai Shenhua to win this match against Henan Jianye, predicting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 13th place, Shenhua has shown an improvement in form recently, winning three of their last five matches. Their offensive capabilities are reflected in their goal tally of 36, which is a notable strength compared to their defensive record of 31 goals conceded. On the other hand, Henan Jianye occupies 9th place and has had a mixed bag of results lately, with two wins, two draws, and one loss in their last five matches. While they have managed to score 26 goals this season, their goal difference of just 1 indicates that they have struggled to maintain a solid defense. This inconsistency could be a concern as they face a team that is starting to find its rhythm. According to the model's calculations, Shanghai Shenhua has a win probability of 55%, while Henan Jianye's chances sit at 25%. A key market percentage to consider is the over/under on total goals, which may reflect expectations of a competitive match. However, one caveat is that if Henan Jianye can tighten their defense, they may pose a greater challenge than anticipated. The full method used to reach this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, produced by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model analyzing expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.6% probability.
Shanghai Shenhua have been the stronger side, winning 41% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Shanghai Shenhua are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Shanghai Shenhua vs Henan Jianye| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.82 | 3.80 | 3.60 | 1.42 | 2.70 | 1.38 | 2.65 | |
| 1.82 | 3.94 | 3.62 | 1.37 | 2.66 | 1.39 | 2.72 | |
| 1.75 | 4.10 | 3.80 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.88 | |
| 1.90 | 4.19 | 3.63 | 1.43 | 2.87 | — | — | |
| 1.86 | 3.45 | 3.10 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.85 | 3.90 | 3.50 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
| 1.90 | 3.90 | 3.60 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 1.88 | 4.06 | 3.73 | 1.37 | 2.66 | 1.39 | 2.77 | |
| 1.75 | 3.95 | 3.90 | 1.40 | 2.65 | 1.42 | 2.60 | |
| 1.85 | 3.90 | 3.50 | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.40 | 2.80 | |
Betano | 1.85 | 3.85 | 3.55 | 1.42 | 2.67 | 1.40 | 2.75 |
BetVictor | 1.85 | 3.90 | 3.40 | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.36 | 2.88 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Shanghai Shenhua leads 6-1)In the last 10 matches between Shanghai Shenhua and Henan Jianye, Shanghai Shenhua has won 6 times, with 3 draws and 1 victory for Henan Jianye. The scorelines indicate a generally favorable trend for Shanghai Shenhua, with several wins by a margin of at least two goals, including a notable 3-0 victory. Henan Jianye's lone win in this stretch came in 2023, suggesting they have struggled historically against Shenhua. The frequency of draws, particularly two in the last three encounters, adds a layer of competitiveness, but overall, the head-to-head record leans significantly towards Shanghai Shenhua.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 23 | 14 | 6 | 3 | 45 | 24 | 21 | 48 | WLDDD |
| 2 |  Yunnan Yukun | 23 | 10 | 4 | 9 | 46 | 42 | 4 | 34 | WWLWD |
| 3 |  Shandong Luneng | 23 | 12 | 3 | 8 | 42 | 38 | 4 | 33 | WWWLL |
| 4 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 23 | 7 | 12 | 4 | 26 | 29 | -3 | 33 | DDWWD |
| 5 |  Beijing Guoan | 22 | 10 | 7 | 5 | 42 | 29 | 13 | 32 | WWWDD |
| 6 |  Dalian Zhixing | 22 | 10 | 2 | 10 | 33 | 39 | -6 | 32 | LWDLW |
| 10 | Shanghai Shenhua | 22 | 10 | 5 | 7 | 42 | 35 | 7 | 25 | WWLLL |
| 13 | Henan Jianye | 22 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 27 | 29 | -2 | 23 | LDDWW |
| 14 |  Tianjin Teda | 22 | 7 | 6 | 9 | 32 | 30 | 2 | 17 | LLWWW |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 21 | 4 | 8 | 9 | 30 | 38 | -8 | 15 | LDWWL |
| 16 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 23 | 6 | 3 | 14 | 31 | 44 | -13 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonShanghai Shenhua have won 7 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Henan Jianye 4-1 and beat Qingdao Jonoon 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 8D 11L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Henan Jianye have won 7 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Henan Jianye 4-1 and beat Shandong Luneng 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 9D 11L from the last 32 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersShanghai Shenhua
No reported absences
Henan Jianye
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Shanghai Shenhua have averaged 4.6 corners per match at home; Henan Jianye 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Shanghai Shenhua have generated 1.43 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 41% of them. They put 4.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Shanghai Shenhua player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
