Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle
Match Preview
The model favours Sparta Rotterdam to win against PEC Zwolle, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Sparta currently sits in 12th place in the Eredivisie, having played two matches this season with one win and one loss, scoring three goals while conceding two. Their positive goal difference of one indicates a slightly better offensive and defensive balance compared to their opponents. In contrast, PEC Zwolle finds itself in 15th place with a disappointing start to the season, suffering two losses and scoring just one goal while allowing five. This poor goal difference of -4 highlights their struggles both in attack and defence. Their recent form, featuring four consecutive losses, suggests a lack of confidence and momentum heading into this match. According to the model, Sparta Rotterdam has a win probability of approximately 65%, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat is that if PEC Zwolle can improve their defensive organization and capitalize on any mistakes made by Sparta, they could pull off an upset. The full method used for this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.7 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.8% probability.
Sparta Rotterdam have been the stronger side, winning 29% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Sparta Rotterdam are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sparta Rotterdam vs PEC Zwolle| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.79 | 3.95 | 3.85 | 1.45 | 2.70 | 1.42 | 2.65 | |
| 1.83 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 1.42 | 2.51 | 1.43 | 2.58 | |
| 1.80 | 4.00 | 3.80 | 1.40 | 2.88 | — | — | |
| 1.86 | 3.88 | 3.89 | 1.47 | 2.68 | — | — | |
| 1.80 | 3.52 | 3.26 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.80 | 3.70 | 3.80 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 1.73 | 4.00 | 3.90 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 1.88 | 3.91 | 3.91 | 1.42 | 2.51 | 1.43 | 2.63 | |
| 1.87 | 3.75 | 3.70 | 1.53 | 2.45 | 1.48 | 2.48 | |
Betano | 1.85 | 3.90 | 3.90 | 1.47 | 2.75 | 1.44 | 2.67 |
Superbet | 1.83 | 4.00 | 3.90 | 1.47 | 2.70 | 1.46 | 2.60 |
BetVictor | 1.83 | 4.00 | 3.70 | 1.40 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sparta Rotterdam leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between Sparta Rotterdam and PEC Zwolle, Sparta has won 4 times, PEC Zwolle has also won 3 times, with 3 matches ending in a draw. The scorelines indicate a relatively balanced rivalry, with several close encounters, as evidenced by the 1-1 draws and the narrow margins in victories. Notably, both teams have had periods of success, with PEC Zwolle's last win occurring in February 2024, while Sparta's last two victories were by 2-0 and 3-1 margins. Overall, the matches have featured a mix of low and moderate scoring, suggesting competitive play.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 3 | 10 | 12 | WWWW |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 5 | 10 | 10 | WWWD |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 4 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 6 | 4 | 8 | DWDW |
| 4 |  Ajax | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 6 | 7 | WDW |
| 5 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 7 | LWDW |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 7 | 1 | 7 | WLWD |
| 12 | Sparta Rotterdam | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 | 7 | 0 | 4 | LDWL |
| 14 | PEC Zwolle | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3 | LWLL |
| 16 |  ADO Den Haag | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | -7 | 1 | DLLL |
| 17 |  Utrecht | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 1 | LDLL |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 4 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 4 | 16 | -12 | 0 | LLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSparta Rotterdam have won 4 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Sparta Rotterdam 3-3 and lost to Sparta Rotterdam 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 8D 12L from the last 28 games (29% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
PEC Zwolle have won 1 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include beat Heerenveen 0-2 and lost to Twente 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 6D 14L from the last 26 games (23% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSparta Rotterdam
No reported absences
PEC Zwolle
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Sparta Rotterdam have averaged 3.9 corners per match at home; PEC Zwolle 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sparta Rotterdam have generated 1.16 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 29% of them. They put 3.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sparta Rotterdam player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
