Willem II vs Excelsior Prediction, Tips & Odds
Willem II vs Excelsior
Match Preview
The model favours Excelsior to win against Willem II, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Excelsior currently sits in 10th place in the Eredivisie standings, having secured 3 points from their first two matches. Their season form indicates a strong start, highlighted by an impressive scoring tally of 5 goals while conceding only 2. This gives them a positive goal difference of 3, showcasing their attacking prowess. In contrast, Willem II finds themselves at the bottom of the table in 17th position, with no points from their opening two matches. They have struggled defensively, conceding 8 goals and managing only 2 scored, resulting in a goal difference of -6. Their recent form, which includes two losses in their last five matches, reinforces their difficulties as they seek to turn their season around. The model gives Excelsior a win probability of approximately 60%. However, a potential caveat is Willem II's home advantage, which could impact the match dynamics. The full methodology of our predictions is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team through an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.2% probability.
Excelsior have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Excelsior are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Willem II vs Excelsior| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.78 | 3.65 | 2.28 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 2.94 | 3.58 | 2.21 | 1.62 | 2.26 | 1.50 | 2.38 | |
| 2.80 | 3.75 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.45 | |
| 3.05 | 3.76 | 2.27 | 1.65 | 2.34 | — | — | |
| 2.65 | 3.21 | 2.16 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.88 | 3.50 | 2.20 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 3.10 | 3.50 | 2.25 | 1.62 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 3.02 | 3.68 | 2.27 | 1.65 | 2.30 | 1.50 | 2.42 | |
| 2.95 | 3.45 | 2.28 | 1.64 | 2.20 | 1.50 | 2.40 | |
Betano | 2.90 | 3.55 | 2.35 | 1.67 | 2.25 | 1.53 | 2.40 |
Superbet | 2.95 | 3.55 | 2.32 | 1.66 | 2.25 | 1.54 | 2.37 |
BetVictor | 2.90 | 3.70 | 2.20 | 1.59 | 2.17 | 1.50 | 2.40 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)The head-to-head record between Willem II and Excelsior stands at 3 wins for Willem II, 4 draws, and 3 wins for Excelsior over the last 10 matches. This indicates a balanced rivalry, with no team dominating the other. The scorelines reveal a mix of tight contests, as seen in the four draws, and a few decisive victories, notably Willem II's 3-1 win in their most recent encounter. Both teams have shown the ability to score, but the matches have often been closely contested, with several ending in low-scoring draws, suggesting a competitive dynamic in their meetings.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AZ Alkmaar | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 16 | 5 | 11 | 15 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 18 | 6 | 12 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 3 |  Feyenoord | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 13 | 7 | 6 | 11 | WDWDW |
| 4 |  Fortuna Sittard | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 11 | 9 | 2 | 10 | WWLWD |
| 5 | Excelsior | 4 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 7 | 9 | WWLW |
| 6 |  Ajax | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 4 | 7 | LWDW |
| 16 | Willem II | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 1 | LDLL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 1 | LDLLL |
| 18 |  Cambuur | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 1 | DLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonWillem II have won 6 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Excelsior 0-3 and drew with Heerenveen 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 4D 5L from the last 23 games (61% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Excelsior have won 8 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Excelsior 0-3 and beat De Graafschap 1-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 7D 8L from the last 26 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedWillem II4-2-3-1Confirmed
Excelsior4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
8 playersWillem II7
Excelsior1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Robin Hensgens has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Robin Hensgens to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Willem II have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Excelsior 3.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Excelsior have generated 1.15 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 4.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Excelsior player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
