ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd Prediction, Tips & Odds
ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd
Match Preview
The model favours a ST Johnstone victory with a projected scoreline of 1-0. Both teams currently sit on equal points in the league, with ST Johnstone in 6th place and Dundee Utd in 8th. However, ST Johnstone holds a slight edge with a better goal difference, having scored 9 goals and conceded 10, compared to Dundee Utd's 9 goals for and 11 against. ST Johnstone’s form has been mixed, with just one win, two draws, and two losses in their last five matches. Their recent performance indicates a struggle to find consistency. Key to their season will be improving their defensive solidity, as they have a negative goal difference, which could impact their ability to climb the standings. Dundee Utd has also faced challenges this season, mirroring ST Johnstone's record with two wins, two draws, and three losses. Their recent form includes two wins but also two losses, suggesting they have the potential to bounce back but need to tighten their defence to avoid conceding more goals. According to the model, ST Johnstone has a 40.5% chance of winning, while Dundee Utd has a 32.5% chance. The projection suggests that over 2.5 goals are likely at 54.5%. One potential caveat is that if ST Johnstone fails to convert their chances, they could be vulnerable to a counter from Dundee Utd. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.2% probability.
ST Johnstone have been the stronger side, winning 61% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. ST Johnstone are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
ST Johnstone vs Dundee Utd| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.30 | 3.48 | 2.83 | 1.72 | 2.05 | 1.58 | 2.20 | |
| 2.30 | 3.30 | 2.88 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.25 | 3.50 | 2.88 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.32 | 3.48 | 2.84 | 1.72 | 2.05 | 1.58 | 2.23 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Dundee Utd leads 5-4)In the last 10 matches between St Johnstone and Dundee United, Dundee United has won 5 times, St Johnstone has won 4 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several closely contested matches; however, Dundee United has secured more victories overall. There have been multiple narrow wins, with five matches decided by a single goal, and only one match ending in a draw. St Johnstone last won against Dundee United in February 2023, while Dundee United's recent victories suggest they have had the upper hand in the most recent encounters.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 7 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 14 | 4 | 10 | 18 | LWWWW |
| 2 |  Rangers | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 16 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 14 | 8 | 6 | 13 | DLWWW |
| 4 |  Dundee | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 2 | 10 | WLDLW |
| 5 |  ST Mirren | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 10 | LLLWD |
| 6 | ST Johnstone | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 10 | -1 | 8 | DLWDL |
| 8 | Dundee Utd | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 11 | -2 | 8 | WDLWL |
| 10 |  Hibernian | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 8 | 11 | -3 | 7 | DLLLW |
| 11 |  Falkirk | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 | 9 | -3 | 6 | DWDLL |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 5 | DWDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonST Johnstone have won 4 of their last 7 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Falkirk 1-1 and lost to Celtic 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 3D 4L from the last 18 games (61% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Dundee Utd have won 4 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include beat Dundee Utd 0-3 and lost to Motherwell 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 13L from the last 31 games (39% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersST Johnstone
No reported absences
Dundee Utd
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
ST Johnstone have averaged 6.0 corners per match at home; Dundee Utd 2.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
ST Johnstone have generated 1.42 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 61% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. ST Johnstone player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.