ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone Prediction, Tips & Odds
ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone
Match Preview
The model favours ST Mirren to win against ST Johnstone, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. ST Mirren enters this match in strong form, having won their last five matches. Although the season has just begun and both teams have yet to play a league match, ST Mirren's recent performances suggest they are carrying momentum into this season, which could play a crucial role in their confidence and execution on the pitch. On the other hand, ST Johnstone has shown some resilience with three wins in their last five matches, indicating they can compete effectively. However, their mixed results, including a draw and a loss, may leave them vulnerable as they start the new season. The challenge for ST Johnstone will be to translate their recent form into a solid performance against a high-flying opponent. The model output indicates a win probability leaning towards ST Mirren, with a key market percentage suggesting they are the favourites to secure three points. One caveat to consider is that both teams are starting fresh, and early-season unpredictability can lead to unexpected outcomes. For a deeper understanding of this prediction, see the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.8% probability.
ST Mirren have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. ST Mirren are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
ST Mirren vs ST Johnstone| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.28 | 3.35 | 3.00 | 1.85 | 1.90 | 1.70 | 2.10 | |
| 2.29 | 3.36 | 2.96 | 1.82 | 1.95 | 1.63 | 2.11 | |
| 2.30 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 1.87 | 1.87 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.42 | 3.29 | 3.17 | 1.88 | 2.01 | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 3.11 | 2.76 | 1.93 | 1.91 | — | — | |
| 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.00 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.35 | 3.30 | 3.10 | 1.91 | 1.91 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.31 | 3.36 | 2.97 | 1.82 | 1.95 | 1.63 | 2.14 | |
| 2.32 | 3.15 | 2.95 | 1.89 | 1.85 | 1.65 | 2.08 | |
| 2.30 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 1.85 | 1.85 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 2.37 | 3.30 | 3.10 | 1.87 | 1.98 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
Superbet | 2.35 | 3.35 | 3.05 | 1.87 | 1.95 | 1.67 | 2.12 |
BetVictor | 2.30 | 3.40 | 2.90 | 1.80 | 1.87 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (ST Mirren leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between ST Mirren and ST Johnstone, ST Mirren has won 5 times, ST Johnstone 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a mix of close contests and some dominant performances, with ST Mirren achieving a notable 4-0 victory in one match. While the overall record shows a slight advantage for ST Mirren, the presence of draws and a close match count suggests competitive encounters. Notably, ST Johnstone's last victory came in February 2025, indicating a stretch without a win against ST Mirren since then.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Celtic | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | ST Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  Motherwell | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | DW |
| 4 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | WL |
| 5 |  Dundee | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | WL |
| 6 | ST Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | LW |
| 10 |  Falkirk | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 1 | DL |
| 11 |  Dundee Utd | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 | LD |
| 12 |  Kilmarnock | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 9 | -5 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonST Mirren have won 6 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include beat ST Mirren 1-0 and lost to ST Mirren 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 5D 12L from the last 30 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
ST Johnstone have won 7 of their last 9 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 2. Their recent away fixtures include lost to ST Johnstone 1-0 and lost to Inverness CT 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 1D 2L from the last 14 games (79% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedST Mirren4-2-3-1Confirmed
ST Johnstone4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersST Mirren
No reported absences
ST Johnstone
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
R. Hardie has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by R. Hardie to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
ST Mirren average 1.4 goals per match at home; ST Johnstone 2.4 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
ST Mirren have generated 0.45 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 3.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. ST Mirren player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
