Standard Liege vs Charleroi Prediction, Tips & Odds
Standard Liege vs Charleroi
Match Preview
The model favours Charleroi to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in fourth place, Charleroi has enjoyed a strong start to the season with six wins from their first seven matches, accumulating 18 points. Their impressive goal difference of +8, bolstered by 15 goals scored and only 7 conceded, highlights their offensive strength and solid defensive performance. On the other hand, Standard Liege finds itself in seventh position with 11 points from seven games. Their season has been a mixed bag, with three wins, two draws, and two losses. Although they have scored 13 goals, their goal difference of just +1 indicates some vulnerability at the back, having conceded 12 goals. This inconsistency could be a concern as they face a more dominant opponent. According to the model's output, Charleroi has a strong win probability in this fixture, reflecting their current form and league standing. However, Standard Liege's ability to score, coupled with their home advantage, could pose a challenge. One key market statistic to consider is Charleroi’s attacking prowess, which may be tested against Standard's home crowd. As always, the full methodology of our prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, created by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals alongside actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.5% probability.
Charleroi have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Charleroi are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Standard Liege vs Charleroi| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.75 | 3.48 | 2.36 | 1.79 | 1.95 | 1.62 | 2.14 | |
| 2.63 | 3.30 | 2.30 | 1.75 | 1.95 | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 2.89 | 3.46 | 2.52 | 1.85 | 2.04 | — | — | |
| 2.64 | 3.15 | 2.31 | 1.81 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 2.75 | 3.25 | 2.40 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.62 | 3.30 | 2.40 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 2.82 | 3.57 | 2.42 | 1.83 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.17 | |
Betano | 2.85 | 3.40 | 2.47 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.40 | 1.76 | 1.92 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Charleroi leads 4-3)In the last 10 matches between Standard Liege and Charleroi, Charleroi leads with 4 wins, while Standard Liege has won 3 times, and there have been 3 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several narrow results; notably, five matches ended with a one-goal margin. Additionally, there have been two goalless draws, suggesting a tendency for low-scoring encounters. Charleroi's recent success includes two wins in the last three meetings, while Standard Liege last defeated Charleroi in 2026, indicating a slight upward trend for Charleroi in this matchup.
Jupiler Pro League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Gent | 8 | 7 | 1 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 11 | 22 | WWDWW |
| 2 |  Club Brugge KV | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 19 | 4 | 15 | 21 | WWWWL |
| 3 | Charleroi | 8 | 7 | 0 | 1 | 16 | 7 | 9 | 21 | WWWLW |
| 4 |  Union St. Gilloise | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 22 | 4 | 18 | 20 | DWWWW |
| 5 |  Anderlecht | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 9 | 6 | 3 | 16 | WWWDW |
| 6 |  KVC Westerlo | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 20 | 17 | 3 | 13 | WWWWD |
| 9 | Standard Liege | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 13 | 13 | 0 | 11 | LLLWW |
| 16 |  RAAL La Louvière | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 8 | 18 | -10 | 4 | LLWLD |
| 17 |  Kortrijk | 8 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 18 | -16 | 3 | LWLLL |
| 18 |  Cercle Brugge | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 16 | -7 | 3 | LLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonStandard Liege have won 7 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 9. Their recent home fixtures include beat Dender 2-0 and lost to Charleroi 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 8D 14L from the last 39 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Charleroi have won 10 of their last 18 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Charleroi 0-1 and beat Standard Liege 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 6D 13L from the last 36 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedStandard Liege4-3-3Confirmed
Charleroi4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersStandard Liege
No reported absences
Charleroi
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Standard Liege have averaged 3.3 corners per match at home; Charleroi 3.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Charleroi have generated 1.57 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 4.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Charleroi player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
