Barcelona vs Alaves Prediction, Tips & Odds
Barcelona vs Alaves
Match Preview
The model favours Barcelona to win against Alaves, projecting a scoreline of 3-0. Barcelona currently sits at the top of La Liga, having played nine matches without a single loss, boasting an impressive record of nine wins. They have scored 39 goals while conceding only nine, resulting in a remarkable goal difference of 30. Their recent form is perfect, winning all five of their last matches, indicating a dominant performance as they continue to assert their superiority in the league. In contrast, Alaves occupies the seventh position with a mixed record of three wins, two draws, and three losses from eight matches. They have scored just 12 goals and conceded eight, leading to a goal difference of four. Their form has been inconsistent, with only one win in their last five matches, which could hinder their confidence going into this tough fixture against the league leaders. The model suggests a win probability of approximately 85% for Barcelona, with a key market percentage indicating strong backing for their victory. However, Alaves could pose a challenge if they manage to exploit any defensive lapses from Barcelona. For a detailed understanding of how the prediction was derived, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where the The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilises an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.6% probability.
Barcelona have been the stronger side, winning 79% of their matches.
Our model projects a 3-0 Barcelona win as the most likely scoreline at 12.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Barcelona clean sheets, in line with their 31% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 1 bookmaker. Barcelona are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Barcelona vs Alaves| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.12 | 7.70 | 18.25 | 1.21 | 3.58 | 1.80 | 1.88 | |
| 1.10 | 9.50 | 18.00 | 1.20 | 4.00 | 1.80 | 1.91 | |
| 1.17 | 6.36 | 22.15 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.15 | 7.00 | 21.00 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.11 | 8.50 | 15.00 | 1.25 | 4.00 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 1.14 | 10.40 | 24.00 | 1.26 | 3.74 | 1.80 | 1.90 | |
Betano | 1.14 | 8.50 | 18.50 | 1.26 | 3.95 | 1.82 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Barcelona leads 8-0)In the last 10 matches between Barcelona and Alaves, Barcelona has won 8 times, with 2 draws and Alaves failing to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a dominant performance by Barcelona, with several heavy wins, including a 5-1 and a 5-0. The matches have generally been competitive, as evidenced by the two draws, but Alaves has not won against Barcelona in this period. The last time Alaves managed to win against Barcelona was prior to this sample, highlighting a significant challenge for them in these encounters.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Barcelona | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 9 | 30 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 22 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 21 | WWLWW |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 19 | LWDWW |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 14 | LDLWW |
| 7 | Alaves | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 11 | LLDLL |
| 18 |  Elche | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 7 | DDWLD |
| 19 |  Valencia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 6 | DDLWL |
| 20 |  Malaga | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4 | LDLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonBarcelona have won 19 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Barcelona 3-0 and beat Barcelona 7-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 33W 2D 7L from the last 42 games (79% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Alaves have won 4 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Racing Santander 2-1 and drew with Rayo Vallecano 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 9D 11L from the last 32 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersBarcelona
No reported absences
Alaves
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Barcelona have averaged 6.3 corners per match at home; Alaves 4.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Barcelona have generated 3.06 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 79% of them. They put 8.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Barcelona player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
