Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna Prediction, Tips & Odds
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna
Match Preview
The model favours Atletico Madrid to win against Deportivo La Coruna, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Atletico currently sits in second place in La Liga, having made a strong start to the season with six wins from eight matches. Their offensive prowess is evident with 18 goals scored, and their defensive record is solid, allowing only eight goals. This combination has resulted in a goal difference of +10, highlighting their overall dominance. Deportivo La Coruna, on the other hand, occupies seventh place with a record of two wins, four draws, and one loss from seven matches. Their goal tally of 10 goals scored against eight conceded shows a balanced, yet less potent approach compared to Atletico. Recent form has been a concern, as they have not managed a win in their last five matches, with three draws and two losses, indicating struggles to convert chances into victories. The model suggests a win probability of 65% for Atletico Madrid, with a projected score of 2-0. However, a potential pitfall for Atletico could be complacency, especially against a side that has shown resilience in drawing matches. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that assesses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.7% probability.
Atletico Madrid have been the stronger side, winning 51% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Atletico Madrid win as the most likely scoreline at 15.7% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Atletico Madrid clean sheets, in line with their 26% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Atletico Madrid are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Atletico Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruna| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.22 | 6.50 | 14.00 | 1.49 | 2.40 | 2.09 | 1.66 | |
| 1.23 | 6.33 | 10.97 | 1.50 | 2.57 | — | — | |
| 1.22 | 6.00 | 13.00 | — | — | 2.05 | 1.73 | |
| 1.22 | 6.25 | 12.00 | 1.53 | 2.50 | 2.10 | 1.67 | |
| 1.24 | 6.92 | 14.90 | 1.49 | 2.40 | 2.09 | 1.68 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Atletico Madrid leads 7-0)Atletico Madrid has a dominant head-to-head record against Deportivo La Coruna, winning 7 matches, drawing 3, and losing none in their last 10 encounters. The scorelines indicate a clear advantage for Atletico, with most victories being narrow, as five matches ended with a single-goal margin. Notably, Deportivo has not won any of these fixtures, with their last victory over Atletico dating back several years. The absence of wins for Deportivo highlights a challenging trend, as they have struggled to score against Atletico, resulting in a low-scoring pattern overall.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 9 | 30 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Atletico Madrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 22 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 21 | WWLWW |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 19 | LWDWW |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 14 | LDLWW |
| 9 | Deportivo La Coruna | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 11 | DLDLD |
| 18 |  Elche | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 7 | DDWLD |
| 19 |  Valencia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 6 | DDLWL |
| 20 |  Malaga | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4 | LDLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAtletico Madrid have won 13 of their last 20 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Atletico Madrid 2-0 and beat Atletico Madrid 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 22W 5D 16L from the last 43 games (51% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Deportivo La Coruna have won 5 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Real Sociedad 3-2 and drew with Penafiel 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 9D 5L from the last 23 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAtletico Madrid
No reported absences
Deportivo La Coruna
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Atletico Madrid have averaged 6.8 corners per match at home; Deportivo La Coruna 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Atletico Madrid have generated 1.46 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 51% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Atletico Madrid player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
