Alaves vs Malaga Prediction, Tips & Odds
Alaves vs Malaga
Match Preview
The model favours Alaves to win against Malaga, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Alaves currently sits in 6th place in La Liga with a solid start to the season, having accumulated 11 points from 7 matches. Their goal difference of +5 indicates a balanced performance, scoring 11 goals while conceding only 6. Recent form shows improvement, with two wins in their last three matches, suggesting they are finding their rhythm. In contrast, Malaga is struggling at the bottom of the table, positioned 20th with just 4 points from 8 matches. They have yet to secure a win this season, drawing four times and losing four. Their goal-scoring troubles are evident, managing only 4 goals while conceding 13, resulting in a goal difference of -9. The lack of victories and a weak attacking output put them in a challenging spot as they head into this fixture. The model's output indicates a strong win probability for Alaves, with the score projected at 2-0. However, a caveat is that if Malaga can improve their defensive organization or find a way to break through Alaves' backline, they could make the match more competitive. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Alaves manage games at home, conceding just 1.41 goals per match. Malaga score 1.38 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.2% probability.
Alaves have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Alaves win as the most likely scoreline at 16.2% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Alaves clean sheets, in line with their 22% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Alaves are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Alaves vs Malaga| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.79 | 3.62 | 4.80 | 2.06 | 1.78 | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
| 1.75 | 3.60 | 5.00 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 1.87 | 1.87 | |
| 1.77 | 3.73 | 4.93 | 2.09 | 1.80 | — | — | |
| 1.76 | 3.22 | 4.04 | 2.08 | 1.78 | — | — | |
| 1.80 | 3.40 | 4.40 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.91 | |
| 1.73 | 3.50 | 5.00 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 1.84 | 3.72 | 4.93 | 2.12 | 1.84 | 1.90 | 1.82 | |
Betano | 1.75 | 3.65 | 4.80 | 2.07 | 1.78 | 1.93 | 1.80 |
BetVictor | 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.60 | 1.97 | 1.72 | 1.90 | 1.80 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 6 Meetings (Alaves leads 4-1)In the last six encounters between Alaves and Malaga, Alaves has won four matches, with one draw and one victory for Malaga. The scorelines indicate a generally favorable trend for Alaves, with three of their wins being by a margin of at least two goals, suggesting some dominance. Malaga's sole win was a narrow 1-0 result, and they have not won against Alaves since May 2018. The overall record reflects a competitive history, but Alaves has had the upper hand in recent matchups.
La Liga Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | 39 | 9 | 30 | 27 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Atletico Madrid | 9 | 7 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 8 | 11 | 22 | WWWWW |
| 3 |  Real Madrid | 9 | 7 | 0 | 2 | 23 | 9 | 14 | 21 | WWLWW |
| 4 |  Real Betis | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 16 | 14 | 2 | 19 | LWDWW |
| 5 |  Real Sociedad | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 17 | 17 | 0 | 16 | WWWLW |
| 6 |  Sevilla | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 14 | 16 | -2 | 14 | LDLWW |
| 7 | Alaves | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 13 | 10 | 3 | 11 | LLDLL |
| 18 |  Elche | 9 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 11 | 17 | -6 | 7 | DDWLD |
| 19 |  Valencia | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 6 | 15 | -9 | 6 | DDLWL |
| 20 | Malaga | 9 | 0 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4 | LDLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAlaves have won 8 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Atletico Madrid 1-2 and lost to Valencia 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 9D 11L from the last 32 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Malaga have won 4 of their last 9 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Getafe 1-0 and drew with Celta Vigo 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 10D 5L from the last 21 games (29% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAlaves
No reported absences
Malaga
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Alaves have averaged 4.6 corners per match at home; Malaga 5.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Alaves have generated 1.35 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 4.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Alaves player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
