Sturm Graz vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sturm Graz vs Heart Of Midlothian
Match Preview
The model favours Sturm Graz to win this match against Heart of Midlothian, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Sturm Graz enters this fixture with a solid recent form, having secured three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. This indicates a strong performance as they build momentum, especially with two consecutive wins to close out their recent run. On the other hand, Heart of Midlothian also shows commendable form with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. Their ability to bounce back after a loss and secure points in their subsequent matches demonstrates resilience. However, they may need to elevate their performance further to compete effectively against Sturm Graz. The model suggests a win probability of around 60% for Sturm Graz, translating to the predicted score of 2-1. A potential caveat is that if Heart of Midlothian can exploit any defensive lapses from Sturm Graz, they could pull off an upset. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.4% probability.
Sturm Graz have been the stronger side, winning 48% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.4% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Sturm Graz clean sheets, in line with their 39% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Sturm Graz are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sturm Graz vs Heart Of Midlothian| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.84 | 3.70 | 3.90 | 1.70 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.10 | |
| 1.74 | 3.78 | 4.30 | 1.74 | 2.05 | 1.68 | 2.03 | |
| 1.73 | 3.50 | 4.33 | 1.73 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 1.75 | 3.86 | 4.27 | 1.75 | 2.08 | — | — | |
| 1.67 | 3.39 | 3.93 | 1.75 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 1.73 | 3.50 | 4.00 | — | — | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.70 | 3.50 | 4.33 | 1.73 | 2.08 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.81 | 3.93 | 4.47 | 1.79 | 2.11 | 1.68 | 2.06 | |
| 1.67 | 3.80 | 4.60 | 1.72 | 1.96 | 1.72 | 1.96 | |
Betano | 1.75 | 3.70 | 4.30 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.70 | 2.05 |
Superbet | 1.74 | 3.75 | 4.35 | 1.72 | 2.05 | 1.68 | 2.07 |
BetVictor | 1.75 | 3.90 | 4.40 | 1.69 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (Sturm Graz leads 1-0)Sturm Graz has a head-to-head record of 1 win and 0 draws against Heart Of Midlothian, with the lone match ending in a decisive 4-0 victory for Sturm Graz. This result indicates a one-sided encounter, with Sturm Graz clearly dominating the match. The scoreline suggests that Heart Of Midlothian struggled significantly, and they have not managed to secure a win against Sturm Graz in their only meeting to date.
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonSturm Graz have won 10 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sturm Graz 4-0 and beat Sturm Graz 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 12D 5L from the last 33 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Heart Of Midlothian have won 5 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Benfica 6-1 and lost to Aberdeen 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 5D 9L from the last 29 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedSturm Graz4-4-2Confirmed
Heart Of Midlothian4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersSturm Graz
No reported absences
Heart Of Midlothian
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Sturm Graz have averaged 5.9 corners per match at home; Heart Of Midlothian 6.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sturm Graz have generated 1.82 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 48% of them. They put 5.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sturm Graz player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
