Sturm Graz vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sturm Graz vs Heart Of Midlothian
Match Preview
The model favours Sturm Graz to win this match against Heart of Midlothian, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Sturm Graz enters this fixture with a solid recent form, having secured three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. This indicates a strong performance as they build momentum, especially with two consecutive wins to close out their recent run. On the other hand, Heart of Midlothian also shows commendable form with three wins, one draw, and one loss in their last five matches. Their ability to bounce back after a loss and secure points in their subsequent matches demonstrates resilience. However, they may need to elevate their performance further to compete effectively against Sturm Graz. The model suggests a win probability of around 60% for Sturm Graz, translating to the predicted score of 2-1. A potential caveat is that if Heart of Midlothian can exploit any defensive lapses from Sturm Graz, they could pull off an upset. The full methodology behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Head to Head
Key Statistics
2026 SeasonSturm Graz have won 8 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Sanfrecce Hiroshima 4-1 and beat Kalsdorf 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 11D 4L from the last 26 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Heart Of Midlothian have won 3 of their last 10 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Heart Of Midlothian 2-1 and lost to Celtic 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 4D 5L from the last 20 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSturm Graz
No reported absences
Heart Of Midlothian
No reported absences
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
