Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan Prediction, Tips & Odds
Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan
Match Preview
The model favours Beijing Guoan to win this match against Tianjin Teda, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Beijing Guoan currently sits in 7th place, having accumulated 26 points from 20 matches with 8 wins, 7 draws, and 5 losses. Their goal-scoring ability has been notable, with 34 goals scored so far this season, while they have a solid goal difference of 7. The team has shown resilience and consistency, particularly in their last five matches, where they have remained unbeaten. On the other hand, Tianjin Teda finds themselves in 14th place with 17 points, recording 7 wins, 6 draws, and 7 losses. While they have managed to score 29 goals, their recent form has been mixed, with four wins out of their last five matches. However, their overall season performance has been less stable, and they will need to maintain their recent momentum to challenge for points against a stronger opponent. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Beijing Guoan, reflecting their superior league position and recent form. One key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of both teams scoring, which could be influenced by Tianjin's recent attacking success. However, a potential caveat is the unpredictability of form, as Tianjin Teda could leverage their recent winning streak to upset the odds. The full method behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.8% probability.
Beijing Guoan have been the stronger side, winning 50% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Beijing Guoan are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Tianjin Teda vs Beijing Guoan| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.05 | 3.40 | 2.15 | 1.77 | 2.00 | 1.60 | 2.10 | |
| 2.78 | 3.42 | 2.34 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.53 | 2.31 | |
| 2.75 | 3.60 | 2.30 | 1.65 | 2.10 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.85 | 3.65 | 2.41 | 1.68 | 2.22 | — | — | |
| 2.53 | 3.14 | 2.30 | 1.64 | 2.21 | — | — | |
| 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.30 | — | — | 1.55 | 2.30 | |
| 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.40 | 1.65 | 2.20 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.87 | 3.52 | 2.41 | 1.70 | 2.19 | 1.53 | 2.35 | |
| 2.95 | 3.40 | 2.23 | 1.70 | 1.98 | 1.56 | 2.23 | |
| 2.80 | 3.30 | 2.30 | 1.67 | 2.10 | 1.53 | 2.30 | |
Betano | 2.77 | 3.40 | 2.35 | 1.65 | 2.15 | 1.53 | 2.35 |
BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.50 | 2.30 | 1.63 | 2.10 | 1.50 | 2.38 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Beijing Guoan leads 4-2)In the last ten matches between Tianjin Teda and Beijing Guoan, the record stands at 2 wins for Tianjin Teda, 4 draws, and 4 wins for Beijing Guoan. The results indicate a competitive rivalry, with four matches ending in draws showcasing a balanced contest. While both teams have enjoyed periods of success, Beijing Guoan's victories include one narrow win and two by a margin of two goals, suggesting that their wins have not been overwhelmingly dominant. Tianjin's last win against Beijing was in 2026, highlighting that they have struggled to secure victories in recent encounters.
Super League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Chengdu Better City | 25 | 15 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 30 | 21 | 51 | WLWLD |
| 2 | Beijing Guoan | 25 | 11 | 9 | 5 | 49 | 33 | 16 | 37 | DDWWW |
| 3 |  Qingdao Youth Island | 25 | 8 | 13 | 4 | 29 | 30 | -1 | 37 | DWDDW |
| 4 |  Dalian Zhixing | 25 | 11 | 4 | 10 | 36 | 41 | -5 | 37 | DWDLW |
| 5 |  Shandong Luneng | 25 | 13 | 3 | 9 | 45 | 42 | 3 | 36 | WLWWW |
| 6 |  Yunnan Yukun | 25 | 10 | 5 | 10 | 49 | 51 | -2 | 35 | LDWWL |
| 14 | Tianjin Teda | 24 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 33 | 31 | 2 | 19 | DDLLW |
| 15 |  Wuhan Three Towns | 23 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 35 | 39 | -4 | 19 | WDLDW |
| 16 |  Qingdao Jonoon | 25 | 6 | 3 | 16 | 33 | 51 | -18 | 14 | LLLLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTianjin Teda have won 5 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Qingdao Youth Island 1-1 and lost to Beijing Guoan 2-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 11D 12L from the last 32 games (28% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Beijing Guoan have won 9 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 4 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Shanghai Shenhua 0-3 and beat Tianjin Teda 2-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 8D 8L from the last 32 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedTianjin Teda5-4-1Confirmed
Beijing Guoan4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersTianjin Teda
No reported absences
Beijing Guoan
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Tianjin Teda have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Beijing Guoan 6.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.6 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Beijing Guoan have generated 3.03 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 50% of them. They put 7.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Beijing Guoan player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
