Tromso vs Ham-Kam Prediction, Tips & Odds
Tromso vs Ham-Kam
Match Preview
The model favours Tromso to win against Ham-Kam, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Tromso currently sits in a strong third position in the league, having gathered 35 points from 19 matches. Their season has been marked by a solid goal difference of +12, with 34 goals scored and 22 conceded. Despite a recent dip in form, with only one win in their last five matches, Tromso's overall performance this season has shown their capability to compete at the top end of the league. On the other hand, Ham-Kam finds themselves in a more precarious position, ranked 10th with 23 points. Their record of 6 wins, 5 draws, and 8 losses reflects a challenging season thus far, with a negative goal difference of -10. Although they have managed to secure two wins in their last five matches, their defensive vulnerabilities have been evident, particularly with 36 goals conceded. According to the model, Tromso has a win probability of approximately 60%, with the projected score being 2-1. One key market to note is the likelihood of Tromso winning by a single goal. However, if Ham-Kam can exploit Tromso's recent inconsistency, they could pose a threat. The full method for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.3% probability.
Tromso have been the stronger side, winning 54% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-0 Tromso win as the most likely scoreline at 13.3% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Tromso clean sheets, in line with their 49% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Tromso are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Tromso vs Ham-Kam| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.44 | 4.55 | 6.20 | 1.55 | 2.35 | 1.68 | 2.03 | |
| 1.40 | 4.75 | 6.50 | 1.57 | 2.38 | 1.75 | 2.05 | |
| 1.49 | 4.86 | 6.29 | 1.58 | 2.47 | — | — | |
| 1.42 | 4.31 | 5.90 | 1.59 | 2.33 | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.40 | 5.80 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 1.44 | 4.75 | 6.25 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 1.48 | 4.67 | 6.36 | 1.58 | 2.40 | 1.68 | 2.06 | |
Betano | 1.47 | 4.50 | 6.00 | 1.57 | 2.35 | 1.70 | 2.02 |
BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.50 | 6.50 | 1.54 | 2.27 | 1.67 | 2.05 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Tromso leads 7-1)In the last 10 matches between Tromso and Ham-Kam, Tromso has won 7 times, with 2 draws and Ham-Kam securing just 1 victory. The scorelines indicate a generally one-sided affair, with Tromso often controlling the matches; they have won by at least a two-goal margin in several instances, including a 3-1 and 2-0 victory. The only win for Ham-Kam came in a friendly, highlighting their struggles in competitive fixtures, where they have not won since March 2024. The presence of two draws suggests that while Tromso has been dominant, Ham-Kam has managed to hold them to stalemates on occasion.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 49 | 15 | 34 | 47 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 19 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 44 | DWLWW |
| 3 | Tromso | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 35 | LDLWW |
| 4 |  Molde | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 33 | WWWLD |
| 5 |  Lillestrom | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 29 | WLDLL |
| 6 |  Rosenborg | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 27 | WLWWL |
| 10 | Ham-Kam | 19 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 26 | 36 | -10 | 23 | LDLDW |
| 14 |  KFUM Oslo | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 19 | LLDWW |
| 15 |  Aalesund | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 18 | WLDDL |
| 16 |  Start | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 13 | LWLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonTromso have won 11 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Tromso 0-0 and lost to Tromso 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 7D 9L from the last 35 games (54% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Ham-Kam have won 4 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 10. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Ham-Kam 4-0 and beat Trysil FK 0-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 13L from the last 31 games (39% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersTromso
No reported absences
Ham-Kam
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Mathias Stofringshaug has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Mathias Stofringshaug to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Tromso have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; Ham-Kam 3.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Tromso have generated 1.34 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 54% of them. They put 5.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Tromso player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
