Viking vs Lillestrom Prediction, Tips & Odds
Viking vs Lillestrom
Match Preview
The model favours Viking to win against Lillestrom, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Viking currently sits in second place in the league standings, having achieved an impressive record of 14 wins, 2 draws, and 3 losses from their 19 matches. Their goal difference of +24 highlights a strong attacking and defensive performance, with 43 goals scored and only 19 conceded. Recently, Viking has shown solid form, going unbeaten in their last five matches with three wins and two draws. On the other hand, Lillestrom finds themselves in fifth place with a more modest record of 9 wins, 2 draws, and 8 losses. They have managed to score 26 goals while also conceding 26, resulting in a neutral goal difference. Although they have shown resilience with three wins in their last five matches, including a recent victory, their inconsistency could be a concern as they face a stronger opponent. The model output indicates a win probability of approximately 62% for Viking, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to consider is Viking's home advantage. However, if Lillestrom can capitalize on any defensive lapses from Viking, they could pose a threat. The full methodology of our predictions can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model assesses expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 11.6% probability.
Viking have been the stronger side, winning 75% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Viking win as the most likely scoreline at 11.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Viking clean sheets, in line with their 34% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Viking are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Viking vs Lillestrom| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.35 | 5.40 | 6.70 | 1.26 | 3.20 | 1.47 | 2.46 | |
| 1.33 | 5.50 | 7.00 | 1.29 | 3.50 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 1.40 | 5.68 | 6.97 | 1.33 | 3.48 | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 5.13 | 5.80 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 5.00 | 6.50 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 1.38 | 5.00 | 6.50 | 1.30 | 3.50 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 1.40 | 5.49 | 6.72 | 1.27 | 3.14 | 1.46 | 2.53 | |
Betano | 1.39 | 5.20 | 6.40 | 1.31 | 3.25 | 1.47 | 2.50 |
BetVictor | 1.33 | 5.25 | 6.50 | 1.29 | 3.30 | 1.44 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Viking leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between Viking and Lillestrom, Viking has won 6 times, Lillestrom has won 2, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a mix of outcomes, with Viking often achieving decisive victories, including two matches with a 4-1 scoreline. Lillestrom's wins have come with a notable 3-0 victory, but overall, the results suggest Viking has had the upper hand, particularly in recent encounters. Lillestrom's last win against Viking was in May 2024, making their victories less frequent in this series.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 49 | 15 | 34 | 47 | WWWWW |
| 2 | Viking | 19 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 44 | DWLWW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 35 | LDLWW |
| 4 |  Molde | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 33 | WWWLD |
| 5 | Lillestrom | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 29 | WLDLL |
| 6 |  Rosenborg | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 27 | WLWWL |
| 14 |  KFUM Oslo | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 19 | LLDWW |
| 15 |  Aalesund | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 18 | WLDDL |
| 16 |  Start | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 13 | LWLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonViking have won 13 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Viking 2-1 and beat Viking 3-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 24W 5D 3L from the last 32 games (75% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lillestrom have won 7 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Lillestrom 1-2 and beat Aurskog Finstadbru 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 4D 14L from the last 34 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersViking
No reported absences
Lillestrom
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Stian Rovig Sletner has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Stian Rovig Sletner to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Viking have averaged 7.7 corners per match at home; Lillestrom 5.3 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.5 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Viking have generated 1.69 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 75% of them. They put 5.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Viking player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
