Valerenga vs Fredrikstad Prediction, Tips & Odds
Valerenga vs Fredrikstad
Match Preview
The model favours Fredrikstad to win against Valerenga, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Fredrikstad currently sits in 8th place in the Eliteserien standings, with a record of 8 wins, 2 draws, and 9 losses from 19 matches. Their recent form has been notably strong, with four wins in their last five matches, showcasing their ability to convert chances into goals effectively. While they have a negative goal difference of -7, their overall performance indicates a more consistent level of play compared to their upcoming opponents. On the other hand, Valerenga finds themselves in 11th place, having secured 6 wins, 4 draws, and 9 losses. Their recent form has been less encouraging, with only one win in their last five matches. This inconsistency has contributed to their current position in the standings, where they have scored 33 goals but conceded 40, reflecting a struggle to maintain defensive stability throughout the season. According to the model's output, Fredrikstad has a higher win probability heading into this match. However, one caveat is that Valerenga could capitalize on home advantage, which may lead to an unpredictable outcome. For further details, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.5% probability.
Valerenga have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Valerenga are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Valerenga vs Fredrikstad| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.95 | 3.72 | 3.40 | 1.48 | 2.33 | 1.47 | 2.46 | |
| 1.90 | 4.00 | 3.50 | 1.50 | 2.55 | 1.47 | 2.63 | |
| 2.02 | 4.03 | 3.43 | 1.56 | 2.52 | — | — | |
| 2.01 | 3.49 | 3.08 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.25 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 2.00 | 3.75 | 3.30 | 1.53 | 2.40 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 2.00 | 3.82 | 3.49 | 1.48 | 2.33 | 1.47 | 2.50 | |
Betano | 2.02 | 3.70 | 3.25 | 1.55 | 2.42 | 1.47 | 2.50 |
BetVictor | 1.95 | 3.70 | 3.20 | 1.52 | 2.31 | 1.45 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 8 Meetings (Fredrikstad leads 3-2)The head-to-head record between Valerenga and Fredrikstad stands at 2 wins for Valerenga, 3 draws, and 3 wins for Fredrikstad over the last 8 matches. The results indicate a balanced rivalry, with no side dominating the other, as seen in the number of draws and the relatively close scorelines. There have been three matches that ended in a draw, highlighting the competitive nature of these encounters. Fredrikstad's last victory in this matchup came in February 2024, suggesting that while they have had success, the results have been fairly evenly contested with no side experiencing a long winning streak.
Eliteserien Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bodo/Glimt | 19 | 15 | 2 | 2 | 49 | 15 | 34 | 47 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Viking | 19 | 14 | 2 | 3 | 43 | 19 | 24 | 44 | DWLWW |
| 3 |  Tromso | 19 | 10 | 5 | 4 | 34 | 22 | 12 | 35 | LDLWW |
| 4 |  Molde | 19 | 10 | 3 | 6 | 38 | 29 | 9 | 33 | WWWLD |
| 5 |  Lillestrom | 19 | 9 | 2 | 8 | 26 | 26 | 0 | 29 | WLDLL |
| 6 |  Rosenborg | 19 | 8 | 3 | 8 | 31 | 26 | 5 | 27 | WLWWL |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 19 | 8 | 2 | 9 | 23 | 30 | -7 | 26 | LWWWW |
| 11 | Valerenga | 19 | 6 | 4 | 9 | 33 | 40 | -7 | 22 | DLDLL |
| 14 |  KFUM Oslo | 19 | 5 | 4 | 10 | 20 | 33 | -13 | 19 | LLDWW |
| 15 |  Aalesund | 19 | 3 | 9 | 7 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 18 | WLDDL |
| 16 |  Start | 19 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 20 | 41 | -21 | 13 | LWLLW |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonValerenga have won 11 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Valerenga 3-4 and lost to Valerenga 0-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 15W 5D 12L from the last 32 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Fredrikstad have won 6 of their last 17 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 9. Their recent away fixtures include beat Lillestrom 1-4 and beat Eidsvold IF 1-7.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 6D 13L from the last 32 games (41% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedValerenga4-4-2Confirmed
Fredrikstad3-4-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersValerenga
No reported absences
Fredrikstad
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Sigurd Smehus Kringstad has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Sigurd Smehus Kringstad to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Valerenga have averaged 6.5 corners per match at home; Fredrikstad 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Valerenga have generated 1.51 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 6.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Valerenga player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.