Udinese vs Cagliari Prediction, Tips & Odds
Udinese vs Cagliari
Match Preview
The model favours Udinese to win against Cagliari with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Udinese currently sits in 9th place in the Serie A standings, having secured 4 points from their opening two matches. Their strong start includes one win and one draw, with a total of 4 goals scored and 3 conceded. This early form, highlighted by four wins in their last five matches, suggests they are in a positive rhythm and capable of taking advantage of home ground. Cagliari, on the other hand, is positioned 11th with 3 points from their two games, featuring one win and one loss. They have struggled to find the back of the net, scoring just once while conceding the same number of goals. Their recent form shows two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches, indicating inconsistency that could hinder their performance against a more in-form Udinese side. The model suggests a win probability of approximately 55% for Udinese, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market to consider is Udinese's home advantage, which typically plays a significant role in Serie A matches. However, if Cagliari can solidify their defense and find a way to capitalize on counter-attacks, they could pose a threat. For a deeper understanding of our prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team details our in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Udinese have kept a clean sheet in 30% of matches. Cagliari average 1.0 goals per game.
Udinese manage games at home, conceding just 1.10 goals per match. Cagliari score 0.96 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.8% probability.
Udinese have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Udinese clean sheets, in line with their 30% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Udinese are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Udinese vs Cagliari| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.25 | 3.24 | 3.42 | 2.06 | 1.77 | 1.79 | 1.92 | |
| 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.40 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.29 | 3.23 | 3.54 | 2.13 | 1.81 | — | — | |
| 2.21 | 2.99 | 2.91 | 2.17 | 1.71 | — | — | |
| 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.25 | — | — | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.25 | 3.30 | 3.25 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.32 | 3.38 | 3.48 | 2.13 | 1.83 | 1.79 | 1.94 | |
Betano | 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.40 | 2.07 | 1.80 | 1.78 | 1.98 |
BetVictor | 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.25 | 1.96 | 1.72 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Udinese leads 4-2)In the last 10 matches between Udinese and Cagliari, Udinese has won 4 times, Cagliari has won 2 times, and there have been 4 draws. The scorelines indicate a generally competitive rivalry, with several tight matches, including four draws. However, Udinese has managed some heavy wins, notably a 5-1 victory and a 4-0 win, which suggests they have been capable of dominating at times. Cagliari's last win in this fixture was over two years ago, indicating a struggle to secure victories against Udinese in recent encounters.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 6 |  Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 9 | Udinese | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | WD |
| 11 | Cagliari | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 3 | LW |
| 18 |  Venezia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonUdinese have won 6 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Venezia 2-1 and drew with Como 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 7D 11L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Cagliari have won 3 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Parma 0-1 and drew with Union Berlin 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 7D 11L from the last 28 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedUdinese3-4-2-1Confirmed
Cagliari4-3-1-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersUdinese
No reported absences
Cagliari
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
G. Manganiello has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by G. Manganiello to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Udinese have averaged 3.4 corners per match at home; Cagliari 5.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Udinese have generated 1.26 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 4.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Udinese player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
