Udinese vs Lazio Prediction, Tips & Odds
Udinese vs Lazio
Match Preview
The model favours Lazio to win against Udinese, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Lazio currently sits in 9th place in Serie A, having won their opening match of the season. Their strong form is evident, as they have secured four victories in their last five matches, showcasing a solid defensive record with no goals conceded in their first game. Udinese, on the other hand, is positioned 11th after drawing their first match of the season. While their recent form shows three wins in the last five matches, they will need to improve on their opening game performance, where they conceded one goal. The lack of a victory so far this season places additional pressure on them to find their rhythm quickly. According to the model's output, Lazio has a higher win probability, with a projected score of 1-0. However, a key caveat is that Udinese could leverage their home advantage, which might disrupt Lazio's momentum. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results from the season to inform their predictions.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Udinese manage games at home, conceding just 1.10 goals per match. Lazio score 1.53 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.8% probability.
Udinese have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Udinese are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Udinese vs Lazio| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.70 | 3.05 | 2.70 | 2.20 | 1.65 | 1.85 | 1.90 | |
| 2.82 | 3.10 | 2.83 | 2.24 | 1.67 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.75 | 2.20 | 1.60 | 1.80 | 1.95 | |
| 2.83 | 3.09 | 2.86 | 2.28 | 1.69 | — | — | |
| 2.74 | 2.92 | 2.68 | 2.26 | 1.69 | — | — | |
| 2.70 | 2.90 | 2.70 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.91 | |
| 2.75 | 3.10 | 2.75 | 2.20 | 1.67 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 2.87 | 3.15 | 2.87 | 2.31 | 1.72 | 1.85 | 1.87 | |
| 2.75 | 3.05 | 2.65 | 2.25 | 1.64 | 1.88 | 1.86 | |
Betano | 2.72 | 3.10 | 2.75 | 2.30 | 1.65 | 1.88 | 1.85 |
Superbet | 2.82 | 3.05 | 2.77 | 2.22 | 1.67 | 1.87 | 1.90 |
BetVictor | 2.70 | 3.00 | 2.75 | 2.09 | 1.64 | 1.80 | 1.90 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Lazio leads 3-2)In the last 10 matches between Udinese and Lazio, Udinese has won 2 times, there have been 5 draws, and Lazio has won 3 times. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in draws and a mix of close results. Notably, the games have often been low-scoring, with only two instances of a team scoring more than two goals. The most recent match ended in a 3-3 draw, highlighting the potential for tightly contested fixtures. The last time Udinese defeated Lazio was in 2024, while Lazio's recent victories suggest a balanced but cautious head-to-head dynamic.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 6 | Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 9 | Udinese | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 4 | WD |
| 18 |  Venezia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonUdinese have won 6 of their last 17 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Venezia 2-1 and drew with Como 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 7D 11L from the last 30 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lazio have won 6 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Bologna 0-1 and beat Frosinone 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 8D 8L from the last 30 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedUdinese3-4-2-1Confirmed
Lazio4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
11 playersUdinese4
Lazio7
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
P. Tremolada has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by P. Tremolada to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Udinese have averaged 3.5 corners per match at home; Lazio 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Udinese have generated 1.28 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 4.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Udinese player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
