Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba Prediction, Tips & Odds
Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba
Match Preview
The model favours Coritiba to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Vasco da Gama. Coritiba currently sits in 7th place in the league, boasting a solid season with 10 wins from 26 matches. Their goal-scoring ability has been decent, netting 34 goals, although they have conceded 35, resulting in a goal difference of -1. Recent form shows they have secured two wins and two draws in their last five matches, indicating a competitive edge as they seek to solidify their position in the upper half of the table. In contrast, Vasco da Gama is struggling in 17th place, having collected just 25 points from 25 games. With only 6 wins and a concerning goal difference of -13, they have faced significant challenges this season, particularly in defence, conceding 40 goals. Their recent form has seen a slight improvement with four wins in their last five matches, but they still face the risk of relegation if they cannot maintain consistency. The model output suggests a win probability of around 60% for Coritiba, with a projected score of 2-1. However, a potential caveat for this prediction is Vasco's recent resurgence, which could disrupt Coritiba's plans if they manage to leverage their home advantage effectively. The full method used for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Vasco DA Gama have kept a clean sheet in 29% of matches. Coritiba average 1.3 goals per game.
Combined goal output is high (2.6 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.9% probability.
Vasco DA Gama have been the stronger side, winning 38% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Vasco DA Gama win as the most likely scoreline at 15.9% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Vasco DA Gama clean sheets, in line with their 29% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Vasco DA Gama are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Vasco DA Gama vs Coritiba| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.42 | 4.33 | 7.20 | 1.77 | 1.98 | 1.94 | 1.75 | |
| 1.40 | 4.10 | 7.00 | 1.87 | 1.90 | 2.00 | 1.80 | |
| 1.46 | 4.56 | 7.62 | 1.82 | 2.05 | — | — | |
| 1.41 | 4.16 | 6.47 | 1.80 | 2.04 | — | — | |
| 1.44 | 4.00 | 6.50 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.45 | 4.20 | 7.50 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 1.46 | 4.46 | 7.42 | 1.82 | 2.03 | 1.94 | 1.77 | |
Betano | 1.50 | 4.40 | 7.70 | 1.85 | 2.00 | 1.95 | 1.80 |
BetVictor | 1.40 | 4.40 | 7.50 | 1.73 | 1.95 | 1.93 | 1.78 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 2-2)In the last 10 matches between Vasco da Gama and Coritiba, each team has won 2 games, with 6 matches ending in draws. This record indicates a closely contested rivalry, as neither side has managed to dominate the other. The scorelines reflect a mix of narrow victories and several stalemates, with only one match featuring a heavy win, where Vasco da Gama triumphed 5-1. The last time Coritiba won was in January 2021, suggesting they have struggled to secure victories against Vasco in recent encounters.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 54 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 52 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 | LDWDW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 45 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 43 | WWWDD |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 | WLWWW |
| 7 | Coritiba | 26 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 34 | 35 | -1 | 37 | LWWDW |
| 17 | Vasco DA Gama | 25 | 6 | 7 | 12 | 27 | 40 | -13 | 25 | LWLLD |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 14 | LWDLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVasco DA Gama have won 11 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 6. Their recent home fixtures include beat Vasco DA Gama 3-1 and beat Vasco DA Gama 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 13D 13L from the last 42 games (38% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Coritiba have won 6 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Coritiba 2-3 and drew with RB Bragantino 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 10D 9L from the last 30 games (37% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersVasco DA Gama
No reported absences
Coritiba
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Braulio da Silva Machado has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Braulio da Silva Machado to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Vasco DA Gama have averaged 4.7 corners per match at home; Coritiba 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Vasco DA Gama have generated 1.78 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 38% of them. They put 5.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Vasco DA Gama player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
