Venezia vs Lazio Prediction, Tips & Odds
Venezia vs Lazio
Match Preview
The model favours Lazio to win against Venezia, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Lazio currently sits in 6th place in Serie A, having won both of their opening matches this season without conceding a goal. Their solid start is backed by a goal difference of +2, illustrating their strong defensive capabilities paired with effective attacking play. With four wins in their last five outings, Lazio's form is impressive and suggests a team in good rhythm. In contrast, Venezia is struggling at the bottom of the table, occupying 18th place after losing all three of their matches this season. They have scored just two goals while conceding seven, resulting in a goal difference of -5. Their recent form shows only one win in their last five matches, which raises concerns about their ability to compete against a strong opponent like Lazio. The model indicates a win probability of 70% for Lazio, with a projected score of 2-0. However, Venezia could pose a challenge if they manage to find their form or exploit any defensive lapses from Lazio. For a deeper analysis of this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team explains the in-house model that uses expected goals and actual results to evaluate fixtures.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.2% probability.
Lazio have been the stronger side, winning 47% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Lazio are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Venezia vs Lazio| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.60 | 3.60 | 2.05 | 1.71 | 2.15 | 1.58 | 2.23 | |
| 4.00 | 3.60 | 1.91 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.60 | 2.25 | |
| 3.64 | 3.63 | 2.09 | 1.73 | 2.22 | — | — | |
| 3.28 | 3.18 | 1.96 | 1.83 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 3.40 | 3.40 | 2.00 | — | — | 1.60 | 2.30 | |
| 3.50 | 3.50 | 2.05 | 1.73 | 2.10 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 3.69 | 3.69 | 2.11 | 1.77 | 2.22 | 1.58 | 2.26 | |
Betano | 4.00 | 3.60 | 1.91 | 1.75 | 2.12 | 1.62 | 2.20 |
BetVictor | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.00 | 1.66 | 2.05 | 1.57 | 2.25 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 5 Meetings (Lazio leads 3-0)In the last five matches between Venezia and Lazio, Lazio has won three times, Venezia has not won any, and there has been one draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive but ultimately one-sided record, with Lazio securing narrow victories, such as the 1-0 and 3-1 wins, alongside a scoreless draw in their most recent encounter. Venezia's inability to secure a win in this stretch, coupled with their last victory over Lazio being absent from this sample, highlights a challenging historical matchup for them against Lazio.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AS Roma | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 9 | WWW |
| 2 |  Inter | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 9 | WWW |
| 3 |  Como | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 3 | 4 | 7 | WWD |
| 4 |  AC Milan | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 5 |  Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 7 | DWW |
| 6 | Lazio | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 18 | Venezia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 0 | LLL |
| 19 |  Genoa | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 0 | LLL |
| 20 |  Fiorentina | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 9 | -8 | 0 | LLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVenezia have won 5 of their last 6 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Venezia 0-2 and beat Venezia 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 7W 3D 4L from the last 14 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lazio have won 6 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include beat Bologna 0-1 and beat Frosinone 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 8D 8L from the last 30 games (47% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedVenezia3-5-2Confirmed
Lazio4-3-3Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersVenezia
No reported absences
Lazio
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
S. Sozza has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Venezia have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; Lazio 4.4 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Lazio have generated 1.13 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 47% of them. They put 3.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Lazio player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
