Vitoria vs Gremio Prediction, Tips & Odds
Vitoria vs Gremio
Match Preview
The model favours Vitoria to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Vitoria currently sits in 12th place on the Serie A table, having played 24 matches with a record of 8 wins, 5 draws, and 11 losses. Their goal difference of -12 indicates defensive vulnerabilities, yet they have managed to score 23 goals this season, suggesting they are capable of finding the back of the net. Their recent form has been inconsistent, with two wins and three losses in their last five matches. On the other side, Gremio is positioned 15th, with a record of 6 wins, 7 draws, and 10 losses from 23 matches. Their goal difference of -7 and 24 goals scored show they are slightly more defensively solid compared to Vitoria, but they have struggled to convert draws into wins, suggesting a lack of consistency. Gremio's recent form features two wins, one draw, and two losses, indicating they are also searching for stability as they aim to climb the table. The model indicates a win probability of 55% for Vitoria, with a projected score of 2-1. A key market percentage suggests Vitoria as the favourite. However, an honest caveat is that if Vitoria's defence falters again, Gremio could exploit those weaknesses to secure points. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which uses an in-house model analysing expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Vitoria manage games at home, conceding just 1.41 goals per match. Gremio score 1.32 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.0% probability.
Vitoria have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.0% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Vitoria clean sheets, in line with their 30% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Vitoria are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Vitoria vs Gremio| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.08 | 3.30 | 3.45 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 2.06 | 3.34 | 3.48 | 2.13 | 1.69 | 1.86 | 1.82 | |
| 2.10 | 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.10 | 1.73 | 1.80 | 2.00 | |
| 2.18 | 3.33 | 3.66 | 2.18 | 1.72 | — | — | |
| 2.09 | 3.19 | 3.34 | 2.13 | 1.72 | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 3.10 | 3.40 | — | — | 1.83 | 1.91 | |
| 2.15 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.10 | 1.70 | 1.91 | 1.91 | |
| 2.12 | 3.44 | 3.58 | 2.17 | 1.72 | 1.86 | 1.84 | |
| 2.07 | 3.25 | 3.55 | 2.14 | 1.68 | 1.84 | 1.87 | |
Betano | 2.18 | 3.40 | 3.70 | 2.18 | 1.72 | 1.87 | 1.88 |
Superbet | 2.15 | 3.25 | 3.60 | 2.15 | 1.71 | 1.88 | 1.85 |
BetVictor | 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.04 | 1.67 | 1.83 | 1.85 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Gremio leads 6-0)In the last 10 matches between Vitoria and Gremio, Gremio has won 6 times, Vitoria has not won any matches, and there have been 4 draws. The scorelines indicate a tendency for Gremio to secure their victories with some comfort, as evidenced by three matches ending with a margin of two goals or more. Vitoria's ability to earn draws has kept some matches competitive, but they have not managed to win against Gremio in this recent stretch, highlighting a challenging history for them. The last time Vitoria won against Gremio is not reflected in these ten encounters.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 26 | 16 | 6 | 4 | 51 | 21 | 30 | 54 | WWWLW |
| 2 |  Palmeiras | 25 | 15 | 7 | 3 | 45 | 21 | 24 | 52 | DWLDW |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 26 | 13 | 6 | 7 | 38 | 28 | 10 | 45 | LDWDW |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 26 | 12 | 9 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 45 | WDWWD |
| 5 |  Bahia | 26 | 11 | 10 | 5 | 40 | 32 | 8 | 43 | WWWDD |
| 6 |  Cruzeiro | 26 | 12 | 6 | 8 | 38 | 37 | 1 | 42 | WLWWW |
| 14 | Vitoria | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | 24 | 37 | -13 | 29 | LLWLL |
| 15 | Gremio | 24 | 7 | 7 | 10 | 27 | 32 | -5 | 28 | WLLWD |
| 19 |  Remo | 26 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 30 | 43 | -13 | 23 | LLLDD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 24 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 25 | 49 | -24 | 14 | LWDLD |
| 20 |  Chapecoense B | 20 | 1 | 7 | 12 | 19 | 41 | -22 | 10 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVitoria have won 15 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Vasco DA Gama 0-2 and lost to Bahia 0-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 8D 17L from the last 44 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Gremio have won 3 of their last 20 matches on the road, drawing 9 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Internacional 0-0 and lost to RB Bragantino 1-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 17W 15D 12L from the last 44 games (39% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
13 playersVitoria10
Gremio3
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
S. Sampaio has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by S. Sampaio to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Vitoria have averaged 4.0 corners per match at home; Gremio 3.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 4.8 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Vitoria have generated 0.62 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 4.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Vitoria player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
