Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama Prediction, Tips & Odds
Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama
Match Preview
The model favours Vitoria to win with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Currently positioned 13th in the league, Vitoria has shown a strong resurgence with four wins in their last five matches, significantly improving their overall performance this season. They have scored 21 goals while conceding 25, indicating a competitive but slightly vulnerable defence. Their recent form suggests they are gaining momentum as they strive to climb the standings. On the other hand, Vasco DA Gama sits in 17th place and is struggling with form, having only secured one win in their last five matches. With five wins and five draws from 18 games, their season has been marked by inconsistency, reflected in their goal difference of -7. They have scored 22 goals but have also conceded 29, which highlights their defensive issues that could be exploited by a resurgent Vitoria side. The model indicates a win probability of 39.3% for Vitoria, with a 29.2% chance of a draw and a 31.6% chance for Vasco DA Gama to win. One key market percentage to note is the 51.7% likelihood of both teams scoring. However, a potential caveat for Vitoria is their defensive record, which could allow Vasco to capitalize on any lapses. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Vitoria manage games at home, conceding just 1.34 goals per match. Vasco DA Gama score 1.29 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 17.3% probability.
Vitoria have been the stronger side, winning 51% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 17.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Vitoria are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Vitoria vs Vasco DA Gama| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.36 | 3.30 | 2.92 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 1.95 | |
| 2.38 | 3.18 | 2.97 | 2.05 | 1.74 | 1.78 | 1.90 | |
| 2.40 | 3.10 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.47 | 3.26 | 3.10 | 2.13 | 1.76 | — | — | |
| 2.34 | 3.00 | 2.70 | 2.08 | 1.76 | — | — | |
| 2.40 | 3.00 | 2.90 | — | — | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 2.40 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 2.44 | 3.27 | 3.06 | 2.09 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 1.93 | |
| 2.45 | 3.25 | 2.90 | 2.02 | 1.78 | 1.74 | 1.98 | |
| 2.40 | 3.00 | 2.90 | 2.00 | 1.73 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
Betano | 2.42 | 3.30 | 3.00 | 2.10 | 1.78 | 1.80 | 1.95 |
Superbet | 2.32 | 3.35 | 3.10 | 2.02 | 1.80 | 1.78 | 1.97 |
BetVictor | 2.40 | 3.30 | 2.90 | 1.98 | 1.71 | 1.78 | 1.93 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Vasco DA Gama leads 5-4)In the last 10 matches between Vitoria and Vasco DA Gama, Vasco has a slight edge with 5 wins compared to Vitoria's 4 victories and 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a mix of close contests and several high-scoring games, with both teams capable of finding the net. Notably, Vasco has secured 4 wins by a margin of two goals or more, while Vitoria's victories have generally been tighter. The last time Vitoria won was in November 2021, suggesting a recent competitive advantage for Vasco DA Gama in this fixture.
Serie A Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 18 | 12 | 5 | 1 | 30 | 13 | 17 | 41 | WWDDD |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 17 | 10 | 4 | 3 | 31 | 16 | 15 | 34 | WLDWD |
| 3 |  Fluminense | 19 | 9 | 5 | 5 | 29 | 24 | 5 | 32 | DDLWD |
| 4 |  RB Bragantino | 19 | 9 | 3 | 7 | 26 | 20 | 6 | 30 | DWWWL |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 18 | 9 | 3 | 6 | 24 | 18 | 6 | 30 | WWDLD |
| 6 |  Bahia | 19 | 8 | 6 | 5 | 28 | 24 | 4 | 30 | DWWLD |
| 11 | Vitoria | 18 | 7 | 4 | 7 | 22 | 25 | -3 | 25 | WLWLD |
| 17 | Vasco DA Gama | 19 | 5 | 5 | 9 | 22 | 30 | -8 | 20 | LLLLW |
| 18 |  Mirassol | 18 | 5 | 4 | 9 | 20 | 25 | -5 | 19 | WLWLD |
| 19 |  Remo | 18 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 21 | 29 | -8 | 18 | WLWDW |
| 20 |  Chapecoense-sc | 18 | 1 | 6 | 11 | 17 | 35 | -18 | 9 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonVitoria have won 14 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat Vasco DA Gama 1-0 and beat Fortaleza EC 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 7D 10L from the last 35 games (51% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Vasco DA Gama have won 2 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Olimpia 3-1 and lost to Internacional 4-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 10D 11L from the last 31 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedVitoria4-1-4-1Confirmed
Vasco DA Gama4-1-4-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
13 playersVitoria11
Vasco DA Gama2
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Vitoria have averaged 3.8 corners per match at home; Vasco DA Gama 4.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Vitoria have generated 0.82 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 51% of them. They put 4.2 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Vitoria player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
