Aberdeen vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction, Tips & Odds
Aberdeen vs Heart Of Midlothian
Match Preview
The model favours Heart Of Midlothian to win against Aberdeen, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Heart Of Midlothian enters the new season with a strong reputation, having finished in the top tier of the league last season. Their recent form shows two wins, a draw, and two losses in their last five matches, indicating a competitive edge as they look to build on their previous success. Aberdeen, on the other hand, begins the season in a challenging position, starting at the bottom of the standings. Their recent form includes three wins and two losses, suggesting potential, but they will need to translate that into consistent performance as the season progresses. The early matches will be crucial for them to establish momentum and confidence. The model output gives Heart Of Midlothian a higher win probability, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage suggests a strong likelihood of them winning. However, it is important to note that both teams are coming off a break, and early-season dynamics can be unpredictable. For a more detailed explanation of how we reached this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team utilizes an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results to inform these projections.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.8 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.1% probability.
Aberdeen have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.1% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Aberdeen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Aberdeen vs Heart Of Midlothian| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.68 | 3.50 | 2.42 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.75 | 3.36 | 2.43 | 1.77 | 2.01 | 1.59 | 2.18 | |
| 2.80 | 3.40 | 2.40 | 1.67 | 2.15 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 2.80 | 3.52 | 2.52 | 1.81 | 2.06 | — | — | |
| 2.71 | 3.14 | 2.26 | 1.79 | 2.07 | — | — | |
| 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.38 | — | — | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
| 2.88 | 3.30 | 2.45 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.81 | 3.38 | 2.41 | 1.77 | 2.01 | 1.60 | 2.19 | |
| 2.95 | 3.50 | 2.20 | 1.72 | 2.05 | 1.57 | 2.23 | |
| 2.75 | 3.30 | 2.38 | 1.75 | 1.95 | 1.57 | 2.25 | |
Betano | 2.85 | 3.35 | 2.50 | 1.80 | 2.07 | 1.57 | 2.30 |
Superbet | 2.87 | 3.50 | 2.40 | 1.77 | 2.05 | 1.62 | 2.22 |
BetVictor | 2.75 | 3.50 | 2.40 | 1.73 | 1.95 | 1.60 | 2.20 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 4-4)The head-to-head record between Aberdeen and Heart Of Midlothian stands at 4 wins for each side and 2 draws over their last 10 encounters. This balanced record indicates a competitive rivalry, with no team consistently dominating. The scorelines show a mix of narrow victories and draws, suggesting that matches tend to be closely contested, particularly with six games finishing with a one-goal margin or fewer. The most recent win for either team was also in the last two matches, highlighting the ongoing parity in their performances against each other.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ST Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  Motherwell | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Dundee | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | WL |
| 4 |  Celtic | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  ST Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | LW |
| 6 | Aberdeen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 | LW |
| 10 | Heart Of Midlothian | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 11 |  Hibernian | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 12 |  Falkirk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAberdeen have won 9 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Aberdeen 2-1 and beat Aberdeen 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 3D 13L from the last 29 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Heart Of Midlothian have won 5 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 8. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Heart Of Midlothian 6-1 and lost to Aberdeen 2-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 4D 9L from the last 27 games (52% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAberdeen
No reported absences
Heart Of Midlothian
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. Dickinson has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by D. Dickinson to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Aberdeen have averaged 4.2 corners per match at home; Heart Of Midlothian 6.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Aberdeen have generated 1.06 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 2.0 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Aberdeen player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
