Falkirk vs ST Mirren Prediction, Tips & Odds
Falkirk vs ST Mirren
Match Preview
The model favours Falkirk to win against St Mirren, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Falkirk enters the new season with a strong position from their previous campaign, finishing in 2nd place. Their recent form has been positive, with three wins in their last five matches, indicating a competitive edge as they aim to build momentum in the early stages of the season. On the other hand, St Mirren, currently positioned 7th, also comes into this match with a solid recent record, including four wins and one draw in their last five matches. However, they have yet to translate this form into the new season, and their challenge will be to maintain that winning mentality against a strong opponent like Falkirk. According to the model, Falkirk has a win probability of 55%, with a projected score of 2-1. One key market percentage to note is the likelihood of Falkirk scoring over 1.5 goals, which stands at a promising rate. A potential caveat for Falkirk is the pressure of expectations at the start of the season, as they aim to secure points early on. For a more detailed look at how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates fixtures based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 15.7% probability.
Falkirk have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 15.7% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Falkirk clean sheets, in line with their 26% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Falkirk are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Falkirk vs ST Mirren| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.97 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.15 | |
| 1.97 | 3.52 | 3.56 | 1.80 | 1.98 | 1.66 | 2.06 | |
| 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.60 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 2.25 | |
| 2.03 | 3.59 | 3.71 | 1.85 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 2.05 | 2.97 | 3.07 | 1.81 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.50 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 2.10 | |
| 1.99 | 3.52 | 3.56 | 1.80 | 1.98 | 1.66 | 2.09 | |
| 1.92 | 3.55 | 3.70 | 1.76 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.14 | |
| 2.00 | 3.40 | 3.50 | 1.75 | 1.95 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 2.05 | 3.65 | 3.50 | 1.82 | 2.05 | 1.67 | 2.12 |
Superbet | 2.05 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.80 | 2.02 | 1.66 | 2.12 |
BetVictor | 2.00 | 3.60 | 3.50 | 1.77 | 1.91 | 1.65 | 2.10 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Falkirk leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Falkirk and ST Mirren, Falkirk has won 5 times, with 2 draws and ST Mirren taking 3 victories. The scorelines suggest a competitive rivalry, with several matches ending in narrow margins. Notably, five of the encounters were decided by a single goal, indicating tight contests. The most recent match, which ST Mirren won 2-1, reflects a pattern where both teams have been capable of securing wins, although Falkirk has the edge in the overall record. The last time ST Mirren defeated Falkirk prior to their recent win was in 2017, highlighting a challenging period for them in this fixture.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ST Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  Motherwell | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Dundee | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | WL |
| 4 |  Celtic | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  ST Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | LW |
| 6 |  Aberdeen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 | LW |
| 10 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 11 |  Hibernian | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 12 | Falkirk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonFalkirk have won 7 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 0 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include lost to ST Mirren 0-2 and beat Stranraer 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 4D 11L from the last 27 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
ST Mirren have won 7 of their last 16 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include beat Falkirk 0-2 and beat Cove Rangers 0-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 5D 11L from the last 29 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedFalkirk4-2-3-1Confirmed
ST Mirren3-5-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersFalkirk
No reported absences
ST Mirren
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
D. Nicolson has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by D. Nicolson to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Falkirk have averaged 5.0 corners per match at home; ST Mirren 6.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Falkirk have generated 0.99 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 2.4 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Falkirk player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
