Hibernian vs Motherwell Prediction, Tips & Odds
Hibernian vs Motherwell
Match Preview
The model favours Hibernian to win against Motherwell, with a projected scoreline of 2-1. Hibernian enters the new season with a solid foundation, having finished in a strong position last season. Their recent form shows three wins in their last five matches, indicating a positive trajectory as they look to build on their previous campaign. The team's resilience is highlighted by their ability to secure victories even in challenging circumstances. On the other hand, Motherwell has struggled recently, with only one win in their last five matches. Their form reflects a team in need of improvement, as they recorded three losses and just one draw during this period. This inconsistency might hinder their ability to compete effectively in the early stages of the season, making it crucial for them to find form quickly. The model gives Hibernian a higher win probability, suggesting they have a greater chance of taking all three points in this matchup. However, one potential caveat could be the unpredictability of the opening match of the season, where both teams may experience jitters. The full method used by The Daily Punt Analysis Team includes an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.8% probability.
Hibernian have been the stronger side, winning 44% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.8% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Hibernian clean sheets, in line with their 19% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. Hibernian are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Hibernian vs Motherwell| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.14 | 3.30 | 3.35 | 1.93 | 1.85 | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 2.11 | 3.30 | 3.38 | 1.93 | 1.84 | 1.72 | 1.98 | |
| 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 1.91 | 1.83 | 1.73 | 2.05 | |
| 2.17 | 3.38 | 3.53 | 2.00 | 1.88 | — | — | |
| 2.14 | 3.11 | 3.11 | 1.99 | 1.87 | — | — | |
| 2.15 | 3.20 | 3.25 | — | — | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
| 2.10 | 3.30 | 3.50 | 2.00 | 1.80 | 1.75 | 2.00 | |
| 2.15 | 3.28 | 3.36 | 1.94 | 1.83 | 1.73 | 2.00 | |
| 2.23 | 3.35 | 3.05 | 1.92 | 1.83 | 1.70 | 2.02 | |
| 2.10 | 3.10 | 3.30 | 1.95 | 1.80 | 1.70 | 2.05 | |
Betano | 2.18 | 3.35 | 3.45 | 1.95 | 1.88 | 1.72 | 2.05 |
Superbet | 2.20 | 3.30 | 3.40 | 1.95 | 1.87 | 1.75 | 2.00 |
BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.30 | 1.89 | 1.78 | 1.73 | 2.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (evenly matched 3-3)The head-to-head record between Hibernian and Motherwell over the last 10 matches stands at 3 wins for Hibernian, 4 draws, and 3 wins for Motherwell. This indicates a fairly balanced rivalry, with no team establishing a significant upper hand. The matches have featured a mix of scorelines, including four draws, which highlights a tendency for closely contested games. Notably, there have been a few heavier wins, such as Hibernian's 3-0 victory in 2024, but overall, many matches have been tightly fought, with several ending in narrow margins or draws.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  ST Mirren | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 6 | WW |
| 2 | Motherwell | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 3 |  Dundee | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | WL |
| 4 |  Celtic | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | W |
| 5 |  ST Johnstone | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 4 | 0 | 3 | LW |
| 6 |  Aberdeen | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 3 | LW |
| 10 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 11 | Hibernian | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 0 | L |
| 12 |  Falkirk | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonHibernian have won 6 of their last 13 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include beat Hibernian 2-1 and lost to Hibernian 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 5D 10L from the last 27 games (44% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Motherwell have won 6 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include drew with HJK Helsinki 1-1 and beat Hibernian 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 11W 6D 9L from the last 26 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedHibernian3-4-3Confirmed
Motherwell4-4-2Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersHibernian
No reported absences
Motherwell
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Hibernian have averaged 4.3 corners per match at home; Motherwell 3.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Hibernian have generated 1.08 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 44% of them. They put 2.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Hibernian player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
