ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock Prediction, Tips & Odds
ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock
Match Preview
The model favours Kilmarnock to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against St Johnstone. Kilmarnock enters the season with momentum, having secured four wins and one draw in their last five matches. This strong finish to the previous season positions them well as they look to build on their success. Their recent form indicates a resilient side, and they will aim to carry that energy into this opening fixture. On the other hand, St Johnstone will be looking to shake off the pressure of their recent form. While they have won their last five matches, it is important to note that these victories are from the previous season and do not reflect their current standings or squad dynamics. As they start this new season, finding consistency will be crucial for them to climb the table, but they will need to translate their past success into results in the league. The model output suggests a win probability of around 60% for Kilmarnock, with a key market percentage indicating a strong likelihood of an away victory. However, a potential risk for Kilmarnock is the pressure of expectations in an opening match, which can sometimes lead to an underwhelming performance. For a comprehensive understanding of the prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates fixtures through expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.2 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.3% probability.
ST Johnstone have been the stronger side, winning 83% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.3% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 6 bookmakers. ST Johnstone are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
ST Johnstone vs Kilmarnock| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.12 | 3.45 | 3.20 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.65 | 2.15 | |
| 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 1.79 | 1.99 | 1.62 | 2.14 | |
| 2.25 | 3.20 | 3.20 | 1.75 | 1.95 | — | — | |
| 2.18 | 3.47 | 3.25 | 1.79 | 2.02 | — | — | |
| 2.21 | 2.97 | 2.77 | 1.77 | 2.03 | — | — | |
| 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.10 | — | — | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.20 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
| 2.17 | 3.40 | 3.20 | 1.79 | 1.99 | 1.62 | 2.17 | |
| 2.20 | 3.45 | 3.05 | 1.77 | 1.98 | 1.61 | 2.16 | |
| 2.20 | 3.25 | 3.10 | 1.80 | 1.95 | 1.62 | 2.20 | |
Betano | 2.18 | 3.50 | 3.30 | 1.82 | 2.05 | 1.65 | 2.15 |
BetVictor | 2.15 | 3.40 | 3.00 | 1.74 | 1.94 | 1.62 | 2.15 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (ST Johnstone leads 5-4)In the last 10 matches between St Johnstone and Kilmarnock, St Johnstone has won 5 times, Kilmarnock has won 4 times, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several narrow victories and a mix of results, including three matches decided by a single goal. Notably, Kilmarnock's recent win was a 2-0 victory, while St Johnstone's last win was 1-0. The close nature of these fixtures suggests that neither side has consistently dominated, with both teams capable of securing results against the other.
Premiership Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dundee Utd | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 2 |  Falkirk | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 3 |  Heart Of Midlothian | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 4 |  Hibernian | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 5 | Kilmarnock | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 6 |  Motherwell | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 9 | ST Johnstone | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 10 |  Celtic | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 11 |  Rangers | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 |  Aberdeen | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonST Johnstone have won 3 of their last 4 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 0. Their recent home fixtures include drew with East Fife 1-1 and beat Morton 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 1D 1L from the last 12 games (83% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Kilmarnock have won 5 of their last 13 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Kilmarnock 0-0 and beat Elgin City 0-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 5D 8L from the last 25 games (48% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersST Johnstone
No reported absences
Kilmarnock
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
ST Johnstone average 2.5 goals per match at home; Kilmarnock 1.7 on the road. Open, attack-leaning sides tend to produce more corners; tight, low-event games tend to produce fewer. Our pick is over 9.5 corners at 1.72.
Player Stats Bet
ST Johnstone have been the stronger side on attack across the season, winning 83% of their matches and averaging 2.5 goals per game. ST Johnstone player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
