ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen Prediction, Tips & Odds
ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen
Match Preview
The model favours Heerenveen to win this matchup against ADO Den Haag, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Heerenveen currently sits in 10th place in the Eredivisie standings, having accumulated 9 points from 8 matches. Their season has been marked by a balanced offensive and defensive output, with 11 goals scored and 11 conceded, resulting in a goal difference of zero. This stability, coupled with their recent form of one win, two draws, and two losses in the last five matches, suggests they are capable of securing points. In contrast, ADO Den Haag finds itself at the bottom of the league table in 17th position, with just 2 points from 7 matches. Their season has been challenging, failing to secure a win thus far, and they have scored only 7 goals while conceding 17, leading to a goal difference of -10. With a form summary showing no wins in their last five matches, their struggle to convert opportunities into points is evident. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 65% for Heerenveen, suggesting a strong likelihood of success in this fixture. However, ADO Den Haag could present an unexpected challenge if they manage to tighten their defence and capitalize on any scoring opportunities. The full methodology of this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as assessed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (4.1 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.8% probability.
Heerenveen have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.8% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Heerenveen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
ADO Den Haag vs Heerenveen| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.32 | 3.75 | 1.97 | 1.41 | 2.52 | 1.41 | 2.64 | |
| 3.20 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 1.44 | 2.70 | — | — | |
| 3.45 | 3.84 | 2.00 | 1.48 | 2.63 | — | — | |
| 2.85 | 3.32 | 2.01 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.20 | 3.50 | 2.00 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 3.30 | 3.80 | 2.05 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 3.42 | 3.87 | 2.03 | 1.46 | 2.62 | 1.41 | 2.69 | |
Betano | 3.30 | 3.85 | 2.05 | 1.47 | 2.75 | 1.42 | 2.75 |
BetVictor | 3.20 | 3.90 | 2.00 | 1.44 | 2.63 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Heerenveen leads 6-0)In the last 10 matches between ADO Den Haag and Heerenveen, ADO Den Haag has not won, recording 0 victories, 4 draws, and 6 losses. The scorelines indicate that while there have been some close encounters, with four matches ending in draws and a couple of narrow losses, Heerenveen has largely dominated the fixture. Notably, Heerenveen has won by a margin of more than two goals on three occasions, highlighting their ability to secure heavy victories. ADO Den Haag's last win in this matchup dates back well before the last ten matches, emphasizing their ongoing struggles against Heerenveen.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 10 | 21 | 23 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 20 | DLWDW |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 19 | LWLWW |
| 4 |  Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 5 |  Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 17 | LDWWW |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 15 | DDWLW |
| 8 | Heerenveen | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 11 | 4 | 12 | WLWDL |
| 16 |  Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 6 | LDLDL |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 | WDDLL |
| 18 |  Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 2 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonADO Den Haag have won 5 of their last 8 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include beat PSV Eindhoven 2-1 and lost to Fortuna Sittard 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 3D 6L from the last 19 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Heerenveen have won 4 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include lost to PSV Eindhoven 2-0 and drew with Willem II 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 7D 10L from the last 31 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersADO Den Haag
No reported absences
Heerenveen
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
ADO Den Haag have averaged 4.9 corners per match at home; Heerenveen 5.5 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Heerenveen have generated 1.24 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 5.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Heerenveen player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
