Willem II vs Cambuur Prediction, Tips & Odds
Willem II vs Cambuur
Match Preview
The model favours Cambuur to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1 against Willem II. Cambuur currently sits 14th in the Eredivisie standings, having secured 5 points from 7 matches with 1 win, 2 draws, and 4 losses. Their goal difference of -9 suggests defensive vulnerabilities, but they have scored 10 goals this season, which is a positive indicator of their attacking capabilities. In contrast, Willem II is struggling at the bottom of the table in 18th place, with no wins so far this season. They have managed just 2 draws and 5 losses, scoring a mere 6 goals while conceding 20. Their form is concerning, having recorded three consecutive losses recently, which reflects a lack of confidence and performance issues. According to the model's output, Cambuur has a win probability of around 50%, with the projected score being 2-1. One key market percentage suggests that Cambuur is slightly favoured in betting markets. However, a potential pitfall for Cambuur could be complacency, given Willem II's desperate need for points. The full methodology for this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 13.5% probability.
Cambuur have been the stronger side, winning 32% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 13.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Cambuur are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Willem II vs Cambuur| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.51 | 3.65 | 2.48 | 1.44 | 2.42 | 1.41 | 2.64 | |
| 2.50 | 3.80 | 2.50 | 1.47 | 2.63 | 1.40 | 2.88 | |
| 2.54 | 3.77 | 2.56 | 1.50 | 2.57 | — | — | |
| 2.34 | 3.35 | 2.34 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.50 | 3.50 | 2.50 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.70 | |
| 2.55 | 3.75 | 2.55 | 1.50 | 2.50 | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 2.59 | 3.76 | 2.56 | 1.50 | 2.51 | 1.41 | 2.69 | |
Betano | 2.50 | 3.85 | 2.57 | 1.52 | 2.65 | 1.44 | 2.67 |
BetVictor | 2.50 | 3.75 | 2.50 | 1.45 | 2.60 | 1.40 | 2.70 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Cambuur leads 3-2)In the last 10 matches between Willem II and Cambuur, the record stands at 2 wins for Willem II, 4 draws, and 3 wins for Cambuur. The scorelines indicate a relatively balanced competition, with several closely contested matches, as evidenced by the four draws and multiple low-scoring outcomes. Notably, the last five encounters have produced only one win for either side, highlighting a trend of tight matches. Cambuur's last victory came in December 2025, suggesting they have been more successful in recent meetings. Overall, the results reflect a competitive rivalry with no clear dominance by either team.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 10 | 21 | 23 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 20 | DLWDW |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 19 | LWLWW |
| 4 |  Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 5 |  Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 17 | LDWWW |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 15 | DDWLW |
| 14 | Cambuur | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 21 | -8 | 9 | DWDWD |
| 16 |  Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 6 | LDLDL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 | WDDLL |
| 18 | Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 2 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonWillem II have won 6 of their last 15 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Willem II 0-3 and drew with Willem II 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 5D 9L from the last 28 games (50% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Cambuur have won 2 of their last 9 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat Cambuur 0-1 and drew with Telstar 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 6W 3D 10L from the last 19 games (32% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersWillem II
No reported absences
Cambuur
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Willem II have averaged 4.2 corners per match at home; Cambuur 4.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Cambuur have generated 1.57 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 32% of them. They put 4.3 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Cambuur player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
