NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen Prediction, Tips & Odds
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen
Match Preview
The model favours NEC Nijmegen to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Currently sitting in 11th place, NEC has had a challenging start to the season with just two wins from eight matches, resulting in a total of nine points. Their goal-scoring has been modest, with 13 goals scored and 14 conceded, indicating a need for improvement in both attack and defense. However, they have shown resilience in recent matches, securing three draws despite a winless streak. On the other hand, Groningen is positioned 6th and has enjoyed a stronger season so far, accumulating 14 points from eight matches with four wins, two draws, and two losses. Their offensive capabilities are more pronounced, having scored 20 goals while conceding 14. Although they have encountered a dip in form recently, with two wins and three draws in their last five matches, they remain a competitive side capable of challenging NEC. The model assigns a 45.5% probability of a NEC Nijmegen victory, with a 24.5% chance of a draw and a 30.0% probability of a Groningen win. The expectation is for more than 2.5 goals in the match, with a likelihood of 63.1%, and both teams scoring at 64.3%. One potential caveat for NEC is their inability to convert draws into wins, which could impact their confidence. For a detailed explanation of the prediction methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.3 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.6% probability.
NEC Nijmegen have been the stronger side, winning 37% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 12.6% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. NEC Nijmegen are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
NEC Nijmegen vs Groningen| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.25 | 3.84 | 2.70 | 1.36 | 2.69 | 1.36 | 2.84 | |
| 2.25 | 3.90 | 2.63 | 1.40 | 2.75 | — | — | |
| 2.29 | 3.97 | 2.77 | 1.41 | 2.87 | — | — | |
| 2.06 | 3.48 | 2.65 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.25 | 3.70 | 2.62 | — | — | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 2.30 | 3.80 | 2.80 | 1.44 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.75 | |
| 2.32 | 3.96 | 2.79 | 1.36 | 2.69 | 1.36 | 2.90 | |
Betano | 2.35 | 3.85 | 2.75 | 1.50 | 2.70 | 1.42 | 2.72 |
BetVictor | 2.25 | 3.90 | 2.70 | 1.40 | 2.80 | 1.33 | 3.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (NEC Nijmegen leads 6-2)In the last 10 matches between NEC Nijmegen and Groningen, NEC Nijmegen has won 6 times, there have been 2 draws, and Groningen has won 2 times. The scorelines reflect a generally favorable trend for NEC Nijmegen, with several decisive victories, including a notable 6-0 win. While Groningen managed to secure two wins, one of those was a narrow 2-1 victory, indicating that NEC Nijmegen has often been the stronger side in this matchup. The frequency of draws, at 20%, suggests a competitive nature, but overall, the historical record leans significantly in favor of NEC Nijmegen.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 9 | 7 | 2 | 0 | 31 | 10 | 21 | 23 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  AZ Alkmaar | 9 | 6 | 2 | 1 | 20 | 10 | 10 | 20 | DLWDW |
| 3 |  PSV Eindhoven | 9 | 6 | 1 | 2 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 19 | LWLWW |
| 4 |  Ajax | 9 | 5 | 3 | 1 | 27 | 12 | 15 | 18 | WDDWW |
| 5 |  Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 17 | 10 | 7 | 17 | LDWWW |
| 6 |  Fortuna Sittard | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 16 | 17 | -1 | 15 | DDWLW |
| 7 | Groningen | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 22 | 19 | 3 | 14 | LWWDD |
| 12 | NEC Nijmegen | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 10 | DDDLD |
| 16 |  Telstar | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 10 | 18 | -8 | 6 | LDLDL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 9 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 11 | 20 | -9 | 6 | WDDLL |
| 18 |  Willem II | 9 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 9 | 26 | -17 | 2 | LLLLD |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonNEC Nijmegen have won 9 of their last 21 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Levski Sofia 1-1 and drew with Excelsior 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 11D 13L from the last 38 games (37% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Groningen have won 5 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 2 and losing 7. Their recent away fixtures include beat Excelsior 1-5 and drew with GO Ahead Eagles 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 6D 15L from the last 33 games (36% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersNEC Nijmegen
No reported absences
Groningen
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
NEC Nijmegen have averaged 3.6 corners per match at home; Groningen 5.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
NEC Nijmegen have generated 1.68 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 37% of them. They put 4.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. NEC Nijmegen player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
