ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven Prediction, Tips & Odds
ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven
Match Preview
The model strongly favours PSV Eindhoven to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. Currently sitting in 3rd place in the Eredivisie, PSV has enjoyed a solid start to the season with five wins from their seven matches. Their offensive power is evident, having scored 24 goals while only conceding 10, resulting in a goal difference of +14. This attacking prowess, combined with their recent form of three wins in their last five matches, positions them as clear favourites. On the other hand, ADO Den Haag is struggling significantly this season, currently in 17th place with no wins in their seven matches. They have managed just two draws and five losses, scoring only 7 goals while conceding 17, leading to a goal difference of -10. Their recent form has been particularly concerning, with three losses and only two draws over their last five matches, indicating a lack of momentum and confidence. According to the model, PSV Eindhoven has a 75% win probability, while ADO Den Haag's chances of winning sit at just 10.2%. The prediction also suggests a high likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match at 76.8%. However, a potential caveat is that ADO Den Haag could benefit from home advantage if they manage to exploit any defensive lapses from PSV. For more details on the methodology, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, which utilizes an in-house model based on expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (5.0 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 10.7% probability.
PSV Eindhoven have been the stronger side, winning 59% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 PSV Eindhoven win as the most likely scoreline at 10.7% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. PSV Eindhoven are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
ADO Den Haag vs PSV Eindhoven| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 9.10 | 6.30 | 1.24 | 1.18 | 3.88 | 1.46 | 2.49 | |
| 10.50 | 7.00 | 1.20 | 1.20 | 4.33 | 1.47 | 2.63 | |
| 8.36 | 7.00 | 1.27 | 1.22 | 4.37 | — | — | |
| 6.86 | 5.51 | 1.22 | — | — | — | — | |
| 8.00 | 6.00 | 1.25 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.62 | |
| 7.50 | 6.25 | 1.30 | 1.25 | 4.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 9.75 | 6.75 | 1.26 | 1.18 | 3.88 | 1.46 | 2.53 | |
Betano | 8.00 | 6.40 | 1.30 | 1.25 | 4.00 | 1.50 | 2.50 |
BetVictor | 8.50 | 6.50 | 1.25 | 1.20 | 4.10 | 1.44 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (PSV Eindhoven leads 7-0)In the last 10 matches between ADO Den Haag and PSV Eindhoven, ADO Den Haag has not secured a win, with 0 victories, 3 draws, and 7 losses. The scorelines indicate a significant advantage for PSV, highlighted by multiple heavy wins, including a 7-0 defeat for ADO Den Haag in 2018. While there have been a few closely contested draws, the overall pattern shows that ADO Den Haag has struggled to compete, particularly in recent encounters, with their last win over PSV dating back several years.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 7 | 20 | 20 | WWWWD |
| 2 | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 10 | 16 | 19 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 19 | LWDWW |
| 4 |  Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 17 | DWWWD |
| 5 |  Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 15 | DDWWL |
| 6 |  Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 14 | WWDDL |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 4 | LLLDL |
| 17 | ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 3 | DDLLD |
| 18 |  Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 23 | -16 | 2 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonADO Den Haag have won 4 of their last 8 matches at home, drawing 2 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Cambuur 1-1 and lost to Fortuna Sittard 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 9W 3D 5L from the last 17 games (53% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
PSV Eindhoven have won 7 of their last 12 matches on the road, drawing 1 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Twente 3-2 and beat Ajax 1-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 19W 5D 8L from the last 32 games (59% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersADO Den Haag
No reported absences
PSV Eindhoven
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Martin Van den Kerkhof has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Martin Van den Kerkhof to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
ADO Den Haag have averaged 5.7 corners per match at home; PSV Eindhoven 6.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.3 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
PSV Eindhoven have generated 2.56 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 59% of them. They put 6.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. PSV Eindhoven player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
