Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar Prediction, Tips & Odds
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar
Match Preview
The model favours AZ Alkmaar to win against Cambuur, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. AZ Alkmaar currently sits at the top of the Eredivisie standings, having secured 19 points from their first seven matches with an impressive record of six wins, one draw, and no losses. Their goal difference of +12, bolstered by scoring 18 goals while conceding only six, highlights their offensive strength and defensive solidity, making them a formidable opponent. In contrast, Cambuur finds themselves in 14th place, with just five points from their seven games. Their record of one win, two draws, and four losses reflects a challenging start to the season. With a goal difference of -9, having scored 10 and conceded 19, they have struggled to find consistency and are vulnerable defensively, which could be exploited by AZ Alkmaar's attacking prowess. According to the model output, AZ Alkmaar has a 68.5% chance of winning, while Cambuur's chances stand at 12.9%. The model also indicates a strong likelihood of over 2.5 goals in the match at 68.7%. However, a potential caveat for AZ Alkmaar could be complacency, as they might underestimate a struggling side like Cambuur. For a detailed look at how we reached this prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis is provided by The Daily Punt Analysis Team, using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.2% probability.
AZ Alkmaar have been the stronger side, winning 55% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 AZ Alkmaar win as the most likely scoreline at 12.2% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. AZ Alkmaar are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Cambuur vs AZ Alkmaar| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 6.25 | 4.85 | 1.41 | 1.30 | 2.97 | 1.47 | 2.46 | |
| 6.50 | 5.00 | 1.40 | 1.36 | 3.10 | — | — | |
| 5.71 | 4.99 | 1.47 | 1.36 | 3.11 | — | — | |
| 5.03 | 4.31 | 1.40 | — | — | — | — | |
| 5.80 | 4.50 | 1.44 | — | — | 1.44 | 2.50 | |
| 6.00 | 4.75 | 1.48 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.50 | 2.50 | |
| 6.45 | 5.00 | 1.46 | 1.30 | 2.97 | 1.47 | 2.50 | |
Betano | 6.00 | 4.90 | 1.47 | 1.39 | 3.05 | 1.50 | 2.47 |
BetVictor | 6.00 | 4.80 | 1.44 | 1.33 | 3.10 | 1.44 | 2.55 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (AZ Alkmaar leads 6-0)In the last 10 matches between Cambuur and AZ Alkmaar, AZ Alkmaar has won 6 times, with 4 matches ending in draws and Cambuur yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a generally favorable trend for AZ Alkmaar, with several narrow wins, but also a few matches ending in goalless draws, suggesting a degree of competitiveness. However, Cambuur has not won any of their last 10 encounters, highlighting a clear dominance by AZ Alkmaar in this fixture. The absence of victories for Cambuur in recent years marks a significant challenge for them in future matchups.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 7 | 20 | 20 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 10 | 16 | 19 | WLWWW |
| 3 | AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 19 | LWDWW |
| 4 |  Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 17 | DWWWD |
| 5 |  Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 15 | DDWWL |
| 6 |  Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 14 | WWDDL |
| 12 | Cambuur | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 | 19 | -8 | 8 | WDWDL |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 4 | LLLDL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 3 | DDLLD |
| 18 |  Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 23 | -16 | 2 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonCambuur have won 3 of their last 9 matches at home, drawing 1 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Cambuur 1-4 and lost to Cambuur 2-5.
Overall, the wider run reads 4W 4D 10L from the last 18 games (22% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
AZ Alkmaar have won 6 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 6. Their recent away fixtures include lost to AZ Alkmaar 2-0 and beat Heerenveen 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 21W 9D 8L from the last 38 games (55% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersCambuur
No reported absences
AZ Alkmaar
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Stan Teuben has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Stan Teuben to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Cambuur have averaged 5.2 corners per match at home; AZ Alkmaar 7.2 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
AZ Alkmaar have generated 2.30 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 55% of them. They put 6.7 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. AZ Alkmaar player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
