Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II Prediction, Tips & Odds
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II
Match Preview
The model favours Sparta Rotterdam to win against Willem II, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Sparta currently sits in 12th place in the Eredivisie, having garnered just 5 points from their 7 matches this season. Their goal-scoring has been modest with 10 goals, but they have struggled defensively, conceding 17. Despite a challenging stretch, their recent form includes two draws, indicating some resilience. Willem II, on the other hand, is at the bottom of the table in 18th place with only 2 points from 7 games. They have yet to secure a victory and have a goal differential of -14, having scored just 6 times while allowing 20 goals. Their inability to turn draws into wins has been a significant issue, and they have shown little improvement in their recent performances, mirroring Sparta's form with three losses and two draws in their last five. The model gives Sparta Rotterdam a 60.6% chance of winning this match, with a 21.8% probability of a draw and a 17.6% chance for a Willem II victory. With over 2.5 goals expected at 64.0% and both teams to score at 60.0%, there is potential for an open game. However, the caveat for Sparta is their defensive vulnerabilities, which could allow Willem II to capitalize if they find their scoring touch. The full methodology behind this prediction can be found in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, as it is based on an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (2.9 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 12.5% probability.
Sparta Rotterdam have been the stronger side, winning 26% of their matches.
Our model projects a 2-1 Sparta Rotterdam win as the most likely scoreline at 12.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Sparta Rotterdam are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Sparta Rotterdam vs Willem II| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.57 | 4.25 | 4.95 | 1.39 | 2.59 | 1.48 | 2.43 | |
| 1.57 | 4.50 | 4.75 | 1.40 | 2.88 | 1.50 | 2.55 | |
| 1.65 | 4.49 | 4.70 | 1.47 | 2.74 | — | — | |
| 1.57 | 3.82 | 4.01 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.60 | 4.00 | 4.75 | — | — | 1.50 | 2.45 | |
| 1.62 | 4.33 | 4.75 | 1.48 | 2.60 | 1.53 | 2.38 | |
| 1.62 | 4.38 | 5.10 | 1.39 | 2.59 | 1.48 | 2.47 | |
Betano | 1.65 | 4.35 | 4.70 | 1.47 | 2.75 | 1.52 | 2.45 |
BetVictor | 1.60 | 4.20 | 4.75 | 1.44 | 2.63 | 1.47 | 2.45 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Sparta Rotterdam leads 8-1)In the last 10 matches between Sparta Rotterdam and Willem II, Sparta Rotterdam has won 8 times, with 1 win for Willem II and no draws. The scorelines indicate a dominant performance by Sparta, with several heavy victories, including a 5-1 win in the KNVB Beker and a 4-0 win in the Eredivisie. This suggests that matches have often been one-sided, with Sparta winning by at least two goals on multiple occasions. Willem II's lone victory came in a friendly, highlighting their struggles against Sparta in competitive fixtures. The last time Willem II won in a competitive match was several years ago, further emphasizing Sparta's recent superiority.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 7 | 20 | 20 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 10 | 16 | 19 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 19 | LWDWW |
| 4 |  Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 17 | DWWWD |
| 5 |  Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 15 | DDWWL |
| 6 |  Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 14 | WWDDL |
| 14 | Sparta Rotterdam | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 13 | 20 | -7 | 6 | DLLDL |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 4 | LLLDL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 3 | DDLLD |
| 18 | Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 23 | -16 | 2 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonSparta Rotterdam have won 4 of their last 16 matches at home, drawing 7 and losing 5. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Sparta Rotterdam 0-4 and drew with Sparta Rotterdam 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 8W 10D 13L from the last 31 games (26% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Willem II have won 8 of their last 9 matches on the road, drawing 0 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include lost to GO Ahead Eagles 4-1 and beat FC Volendam 1-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 4D 7L from the last 25 games (56% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersSparta Rotterdam
No reported absences
Willem II
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Serdar Gozubuyuk has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 2 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Sparta Rotterdam have averaged 5.5 corners per match at home; Willem II 4.8 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.2 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Sparta Rotterdam have generated 1.48 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 26% of them. They put 3.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Sparta Rotterdam player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
