Groningen vs Ajax Prediction, Tips & Odds
Groningen vs Ajax
Match Preview
The model favours Ajax to win this match, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Positioned fifth in the Eredivisie, Ajax has had a solid season thus far, accumulating 14 points from seven matches with four wins, two draws, and only one loss. Their goal-scoring prowess is evident, having netted 21 goals while conceding just 9, resulting in a goal difference of +12. This offensive strength will be crucial as they look to secure three points against Groningen. Groningen, sitting in eighth place with 11 points, has had a mixed season, recording three wins, two draws, and two losses. Their overall goal tally of 15 with 13 against gives them a modest goal difference of +2. While they have shown resilience, their recent form has been less than ideal, with only one win in their last five matches. This inconsistency could hinder their chances against a stronger Ajax side. According to the model, Ajax has a 55.2% probability of winning this match, compared to 22.6% for Groningen and 22.2% for a draw. The likelihood of over 2.5 goals is significant at 67.6%, and both teams are expected to score, with a probability of 65.4%. However, if Groningen can find their rhythm and exploit any defensive lapses from Ajax, they could pose a challenge. For a deeper understanding of our prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. This analysis comes from The Daily Punt Analysis Team, utilizing an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Combined goal output is high (3.5 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 11.5% probability.
Ajax have been the stronger side, winning 45% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-2 Ajax win as the most likely scoreline at 11.5% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 5 bookmakers. Ajax are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Groningen vs Ajax| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 3.50 | 4.05 | 1.85 | 1.32 | 2.88 | 1.35 | 2.88 | |
| 3.40 | 4.20 | 1.85 | 1.33 | 3.25 | — | — | |
| 3.43 | 4.31 | 1.89 | 1.37 | 3.12 | — | — | |
| 2.92 | 3.53 | 1.91 | — | — | — | — | |
| 3.40 | 3.90 | 1.85 | — | — | 1.36 | 2.80 | |
| 3.60 | 4.00 | 1.91 | 1.36 | 3.10 | 1.36 | 3.00 | |
| 3.60 | 4.17 | 1.91 | 1.32 | 2.88 | 1.35 | 2.94 | |
Betano | 3.45 | 4.15 | 1.93 | 1.38 | 3.10 | 1.37 | 2.95 |
BetVictor | 3.40 | 4.10 | 1.87 | 1.33 | 3.10 | 1.33 | 3.00 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (Ajax leads 8-1)In the last 10 encounters between Groningen and Ajax, Ajax has won 8 times, Groningen has won once, and there has been 1 draw. The scorelines indicate a significant dominance by Ajax, with several heavy wins, including a notable 6-1 victory. While Groningen managed a 3-1 win at home in 2026, overall, the matches tend to favor Ajax, suggesting a trend of one-sided results. The draw in their most recent match was an anomaly in a series where Ajax has consistently outperformed Groningen, highlighting the latter's struggle to secure victories against this opponent.
Eredivisie Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 27 | 7 | 20 | 20 | WWWWD |
| 2 |  PSV Eindhoven | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 10 | 16 | 19 | WLWWW |
| 3 |  AZ Alkmaar | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 18 | 8 | 10 | 19 | LWDWW |
| 4 |  Twente | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 8 | 8 | 17 | DWWWD |
| 5 | Ajax | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 22 | 10 | 12 | 15 | DDWWL |
| 6 | Groningen | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | 20 | 14 | 6 | 14 | WWDDL |
| 16 |  PEC Zwolle | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 21 | -15 | 4 | LLLDL |
| 17 |  ADO Den Haag | 8 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | -10 | 3 | DDLLD |
| 18 |  Willem II | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 7 | 23 | -16 | 2 | LLLDL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonGroningen have won 7 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 7. Their recent home fixtures include beat Groningen 3-0 and drew with Groningen 2-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 12W 5D 14L from the last 31 games (39% win rate). The form line has been negative, with defeats outweighing wins across the sample.
Ajax have won 8 of their last 15 matches on the road, drawing 6 and losing 1. Their recent away fixtures include beat Telstar 0-4 and beat FC Sion 2-4.
Overall, the wider run reads 18W 15D 7L from the last 40 games (45% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersGroningen
No reported absences
Ajax
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Dennis Higler has averaged 4.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is over 3.5 yellow cards at 1.85.
Corner Prediction
Groningen have averaged 5.7 corners per match at home; Ajax 7.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 7.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Ajax have generated 2.05 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 45% of them. They put 8.5 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Ajax player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
