AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis Prediction, Tips & Odds
AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis
Match Preview
The model favours AEK Athens FC to win this match against Aris Thessalonikis, projecting a scoreline of 3-1. AEK Athens currently sits atop the Super League 1 standings after a commanding victory in their opening match, scoring four goals without conceding any. This strong start is complemented by their recent form, which shows three wins and two draws in their last five matches, indicating a solid momentum heading into this fixture. On the other hand, Aris Thessalonikis is also off to a winning start, having secured three goals in their first match while conceding two. They currently occupy second place in the league, and their recent form features four wins and one loss in their last five matches. However, the defensive vulnerabilities shown in their opening game may raise concerns as they face a strong AEK side. According to our model, AEK Athens FC has a win probability of approximately 60%, while the projected score indicates a competitive contest. One key market percentage to consider is the likelihood of AEK winning by at least two goals. A potential caveat could be if Aris manages to tighten their defence and capitalise on any mistakes from AEK, which could turn the tide in their favour. For a full breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, developed by The Daily Punt Analysis Team using an in-house model that evaluates expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
AEK Athens FC have kept a clean sheet in 51% of matches. Aris Thessalonikis average 1.4 goals per game.
Combined goal output is high (3.4 per game). The over has been the right side more often than not.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.6% probability.
AEK Athens FC have been the stronger side, winning 57% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 AEK Athens FC win as the most likely scoreline at 16.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature AEK Athens FC clean sheets, in line with their 51% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. AEK Athens FC are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
AEK Athens FC vs Aris Thessalonikis| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.36 | 4.65 | 8.20 | 1.80 | 1.98 | 2.06 | 1.66 | |
| 1.33 | 4.75 | 7.50 | — | — | — | — | |
| 1.37 | 4.98 | 8.71 | 1.84 | 2.04 | — | — | |
| 1.36 | 4.40 | 7.50 | — | — | 2.00 | 1.73 | |
| 1.38 | 4.50 | 8.00 | 1.80 | 2.00 | 2.05 | 1.70 | |
| 1.37 | 4.65 | 8.15 | 1.80 | 1.98 | 2.06 | 1.68 | |
| 1.41 | 4.40 | 7.50 | 1.78 | 1.90 | 2.02 | 1.68 | |
Betano | 1.40 | 4.65 | 8.25 | 1.78 | 2.10 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
BetVictor | 1.36 | 4.50 | 8.50 | 1.76 | 1.92 | 2.05 | 1.67 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (AEK Athens FC leads 5-0)The head-to-head record between AEK Athens FC and Aris Thessalonikis shows AEK winning 5 times, with 5 matches ending in a draw, and Aris yet to secure a victory. The scorelines indicate a competitive but ultimately favorable history for AEK, with several matches ending in draws and narrow wins. Notably, AEK has achieved a significant 4-0 victory, while Aris has only managed to draw twice against AEK in their last ten encounters. The absence of wins for Aris reflects a challenging trend, as they have not won against AEK in this period.
Super League 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AEK Athens FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 7 | WDW |
| 2 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | DWW |
| 3 |  PAOK | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | WW |
| 4 |  Panetolikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 6 | LWW |
| 6 |  Panathinaikos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 12 |  Kalamata | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | LL |
| 13 |  Asteras Tripolis | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | LL |
| 14 |  Levadiakos | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAEK Athens FC have won 12 of their last 18 matches at home, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent home fixtures include beat Aris Thessalonikis 5-0 and beat Levski Sofia 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 20W 11D 4L from the last 35 games (57% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Aris Thessalonikis have won 6 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include lost to Aris Thessalonikis 5-0 and beat Kalamata 2-3.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 8D 6L from the last 24 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
ConfirmedAEK Athens FC4-4-2Confirmed
Aris Thessalonikis4-2-3-1Confirmed
Unavailable Players
0 playersAEK Athens FC
No reported absences
Aris Thessalonikis
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
A. Tsakalidis has averaged 3.0 yellow cards per match across 1 recent fixtures we have data for. Our pick is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
AEK Athens FC have averaged 4.9 corners per match at home; Aris Thessalonikis 5.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 6.4 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
AEK Athens FC have generated 1.53 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 57% of them. They put 5.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. AEK Athens FC player to score or assist at 1.55 looks well supported by the data.
What's Your Prediction?
Pick the result you expect
Do you agree with this prediction?
The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
