Panathinaikos vs PAOK Prediction, Tips & Odds
Panathinaikos vs PAOK
Match Preview
The model favours Panathinaikos to win against PAOK, projecting a scoreline of 2-1. Panathinaikos enters the new season with a solid foundation, having gone unbeaten in their last five matches, recording two wins and three draws. This form suggests a team that is difficult to beat and capable of securing points, which may translate into a positive start to the season. On the other hand, PAOK has had a mixed bag in their recent outings, with two wins, one draw, and two losses in their last five matches. This inconsistency could hinder their momentum as they commence the season. While they have shown the ability to win, their defensive vulnerabilities may be exposed against a determined Panathinaikos side. The model output indicates a win probability of around 60% for Panathinaikos, while the key market percentage suggests they are the clear favourites to take all three points. However, it's essential to note that both teams are starting fresh in the season, and early unpredictability can lead to surprising outcomes. The full method behind this prediction is detailed in the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, where our in-house model analyzes expected goals and actual results across the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Both attacks have been productive in recent matches, with regular goal-scoring on either side.
Panathinaikos manage games at home, conceding just 1.17 goals per match. PAOK score 1.71 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.6% probability.
Panathinaikos have been the stronger side, winning 43% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 16.6% probability. 3 of the top six outcomes feature Panathinaikos clean sheets, in line with their 27% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 2 bookmakers. Panathinaikos are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Panathinaikos vs PAOK| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.30 | 3.20 | 3.08 | 2.18 | 1.66 | 1.86 | 1.82 | |
| 2.25 | 3.25 | 3.10 | — | — | — | — | |
| 2.32 | 3.20 | 3.09 | 2.18 | 1.66 | 1.86 | 1.84 | |
Betano | 2.32 | 3.25 | 3.20 | 2.22 | 1.70 | 1.90 | 1.85 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 10 Meetings (PAOK leads 5-3)In the last 10 matches between Panathinaikos and PAOK, PAOK leads with 5 wins, while Panathinaikos has won 3 times, and there have been 2 draws. The scorelines indicate a competitive rivalry, with several matches being closely contested. Notably, four of the matches ended in a single-goal difference, suggesting tight encounters. However, PAOK has also recorded a heavy 4-1 victory over Panathinaikos, which highlights their ability to dominate at times. The last victory for Panathinaikos came in 2025, marking a gap since they last triumphed in this fixture.
Super League 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PAOK | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | WW |
| 2 |  Panetolikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 3 |  Aris Thessalonikis | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 4 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 6 | WW |
| 5 |  AEK Athens FC | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 4 | DW |
| 6 |  OFI | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | LW |
| 10 | Panathinaikos | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | |
| 12 |  Kalamata | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | LL |
| 13 |  Asteras Tripolis | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | LL |
| 14 |  Levadiakos | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -4 | 0 | L |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonPanathinaikos have won 4 of their last 14 matches at home, drawing 8 and losing 2. Their recent home fixtures include drew with Panathinaikos 2-2 and drew with Panathinaikos 1-1.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 10D 7L from the last 30 games (43% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
PAOK have won 4 of their last 14 matches on the road, drawing 5 and losing 5. Their recent away fixtures include beat PAOK 1-2 and lost to Brann 3-2.
Overall, the wider run reads 13W 9D 9L from the last 31 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersPanathinaikos
No reported absences
PAOK
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
The referee for this fixture has not been confirmed, so we are sitting this card market out.
Corner Prediction
Panathinaikos have averaged 5.3 corners per match at home; PAOK 4.6 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.9 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Panathinaikos have generated 0.87 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 43% of them. They put 5.9 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Panathinaikos player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.
