Akhmat vs Baltika Prediction, Tips & Odds
Akhmat vs Baltika
Match Preview
The model favours Akhmat to secure a narrow victory against Baltika, projecting a scoreline of 1-0. Currently sitting in 10th place, Akhmat has had a mixed season with 2 wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses from their first 9 matches, resulting in 10 points. Their goal difference stands at zero, with 13 goals scored and 13 conceded, indicating a balanced but inconsistent performance. In contrast, Baltika is positioned just above Akhmat at 8th with 11 points, having recorded 3 wins, 2 draws, and 4 losses. Their goal tally reveals a slightly more offensive approach, having scored 14 goals while conceding 12. However, their recent form suggests struggles, with only 1 win in the last 5 matches, which could impact their confidence heading into this fixture. The model assigns a 41% win probability to Akhmat, with a 29.1% chance of a draw and a 29.8% likelihood of a Baltika victory. The prediction indicates that over 2.5 goals is expected in 42.3% of cases, and both teams to score is projected at 48.8%. A potential concern for Akhmat could be their ability to convert chances, especially given their recent form of just 1 win in 5 matches. For a deeper understanding of the prediction, refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section, which details our in-house model's analysis using expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Akhmat have kept a clean sheet in 32% of matches. Baltika average 1.4 goals per game.
Akhmat manage games at home, conceding just 1.07 goals per match. Baltika score 1.41 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 18.0% probability.
Akhmat have been the stronger side, winning 40% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-1 draw as the most likely scoreline at 18.0% probability. These six outcomes together cover the bulk of the projected probability for this fixture.
Lines averaged across 3 bookmakers. Akhmat are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Akhmat vs Baltika| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 2.60 | 3.14 | 2.96 | 2.32 | 1.62 | 1.92 | 1.79 | |
| 2.64 | 3.13 | 2.99 | 2.37 | 1.62 | — | — | |
| 2.40 | 2.99 | 2.64 | 2.19 | 1.68 | — | — | |
| 2.67 | 3.22 | 3.04 | 2.40 | 1.67 | 1.92 | 1.80 | |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 7 Meetings (Baltika leads 5-0)In the last seven encounters between Akhmat and Baltika, Akhmat has failed to secure a win, recording two draws and five losses. The scorelines indicate a significant advantage for Baltika, highlighted by a heavy 7-1 victory in one match and a 4-1 win in another. The matches tend to be low-scoring for Akhmat, with their only goals in the last five fixtures being a result of draws. Akhmat's last win against Baltika dates back several matches, further emphasizing Baltika's dominance in this head-to-head record.
Premier League Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Dynamo | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 9 | 25 | WWWWW |
| 2 |  Zenit | 11 | 8 | 0 | 3 | 25 | 13 | 12 | 24 | WWWWL |
| 3 |  Spartak Moscow | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 21 | 8 | 13 | 23 | WDWWL |
| 4 |  CSKA Moscow | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 12 | 7 | 22 | LWWDW |
| 5 |  FC Krasnodar | 11 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 19 | 13 | 6 | 22 | DLDDD |
| 6 |  FC Orenburg | 11 | 2 | 7 | 2 | 13 | 12 | 1 | 13 | DWDLD |
| 7 | Baltika | 11 | 3 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 12 | 2 | 13 | DDLDL |
| 13 | Akhmat | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | 15 | 16 | -1 | 11 | LDLWD |
| 14 |  Akron | 11 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 12 | 20 | -8 | 9 | DLWDD |
| 15 |  Fakel | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 8 | 19 | -11 | 6 | WLLDL |
| 16 |  Rodina Moskva | 11 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 27 | -15 | 6 | DLDLL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAkhmat have won 14 of their last 22 matches at home, drawing 4 and losing 4. Their recent home fixtures include lost to Dynamo 1-2 and drew with Baltika 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 16W 14D 10L from the last 40 games (40% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Baltika have won 8 of their last 19 matches on the road, drawing 7 and losing 4. Their recent away fixtures include beat Krylia Sovetov 0-2 and drew with Akhmat 0-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 14W 14D 11L from the last 39 games (36% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
4 playersAkhmat3
Baltika1
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Aleksei Suchkov has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Aleksei Suchkov to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Akhmat have averaged 4.4 corners per match at home; Baltika 4.9 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.7 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Akhmat have generated 1.14 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 40% of them. They put 3.6 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Akhmat player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.