Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908 Prediction, Tips & Odds
Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908
Match Preview
The model favours Aris Thessalonikis to win against Iraklis 1908, projecting a scoreline of 2-0. Aris currently sits in 5th place in the Super League 1 standings, having played three matches this season. With two wins and one loss, they have scored five goals but conceded eight, resulting in a goal difference of -3. Their recent form shows they have won three of their last five matches, indicating a capacity to secure points despite some defensive vulnerabilities. Iraklis 1908, on the other hand, is struggling in 10th place with only one point from two matches. Their performance has been disappointing, with no wins and just a single draw to show for their efforts so far. They have managed to score only one goal while conceding five, leaving them with a goal difference of -4. Their recent form reflects this struggle, with three draws and two losses in their last five matches, highlighting their difficulties in both attack and defense. The model indicates a win probability of approximately 65% for Aris, suggesting they are the clear favourites for this match. However, a potential caveat for Aris could be their defensive frailties, which might allow Iraklis to capitalize if they can find their scoring touch. For a detailed breakdown of how we reached this prediction, please refer to the "How We Reached This Prediction" section. The Daily Punt Analysis Team employs an in-house model that evaluates matches through expected goals and actual results throughout the season.
Betting Predictions
How the model works, and its full prediction record, are set out on our How It Works and Accuracy pages.
Aris Thessalonikis have kept a clean sheet in 29% of matches. Iraklis 1908 average 0.9 goals per game.
Aris Thessalonikis manage games at home, conceding just 1.42 goals per match. Iraklis 1908 score 0.92 on the road.
The most likely scoreline per our model at 16.8% probability.
Aris Thessalonikis have been the stronger side, winning 42% of their matches.
Our model projects a 1-0 Aris Thessalonikis win as the most likely scoreline at 16.8% probability. 4 of the top six outcomes feature Aris Thessalonikis clean sheets, in line with their 29% clean-sheet rate this season.
Lines averaged across 4 bookmakers. Aris Thessalonikis are the favourites on the spread, so the larger handicaps pay more if they win comfortably while the smaller lines protect the bet on a narrower result.
Best Betting Odds
Aris Thessalonikis vs Iraklis 1908| Bookmaker | 1X2 | O/U 2.5 | BTTS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | X | 2 | Over | Under | Yes | No | |
| 1.65 | 3.70 | 5.05 | 1.94 | 1.80 | 1.89 | 1.79 | |
| 1.62 | 3.80 | 5.00 | 2.05 | 1.75 | 2.05 | 1.75 | |
| 1.69 | 3.84 | 5.26 | 2.03 | 1.85 | — | — | |
| 1.58 | 3.37 | 4.53 | 2.04 | 1.78 | — | — | |
| 1.62 | 3.60 | 5.00 | — | — | 1.85 | 1.85 | |
| 1.65 | 3.90 | 5.00 | 1.95 | 1.85 | 1.95 | 1.80 | |
| 1.66 | 3.72 | 5.04 | 1.94 | 1.80 | 1.90 | 1.80 | |
Betano | 1.67 | 3.75 | 5.40 | 2.07 | 1.78 | 2.00 | 1.75 |
BetVictor | 1.62 | 3.70 | 5.25 | 1.89 | 1.78 | 1.90 | 1.80 |
Goals Probability
Avg. bookmaker oddsDouble Chance
Bet covers two outcomesHead to Head
Last 1 Meetings (evenly matched 0-0)The head-to-head record between Aris Thessalonikis and Iraklis 1908 stands at 0 wins for Aris, 1 draw, and 0 wins for Iraklis. Their only meeting ended in a 0-0 stalemate, indicating a tightly contested match with no goals scored. This suggests a pattern of low-scoring encounters, and neither team has been able to secure a victory in their recent clash. The lack of wins for either side highlights a competitive balance, though it remains to be seen how future matches will unfold.
Super League 1 Standings
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | GD | Pts | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  AEK Athens FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 10 | 1 | 9 | 7 | WDW |
| 2 |  Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 7 | DWW |
| 3 |  PAOK | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 1 | 5 | 6 | WW |
| 4 |  Panetolikos | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 6 | WW |
| 5 | Aris Thessalonikis | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 6 | LWW |
| 6 |  Panathinaikos | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 10 | Iraklis 1908 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | -4 | 1 | DL |
| 12 |  Kalamata | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 0 | LL |
| 13 |  Asteras Tripolis | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 0 | LL |
| 14 |  Levadiakos | 2 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 6 | -6 | 0 | LL |
Venue Record
Current season at home / on the roadKey Statistics
2026 SeasonAris Thessalonikis have won 4 of their last 10 matches at home, drawing 5 and losing 1. Their recent home fixtures include beat Aris Thessalonikis 2-1 and beat Aris Thessalonikis 3-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 10W 8D 6L from the last 24 games (42% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Iraklis 1908 have won 3 of their last 9 matches on the road, drawing 3 and losing 3. Their recent away fixtures include drew with Iraklis 1908 1-1 and lost to AEK Athens FC 4-0.
Overall, the wider run reads 4W 4D 4L from the last 12 games (33% win rate). The form line is positive, with more wins than defeats across the sample.
Lineups
Lineups not yet announced
Starting lineups are usually confirmed approximately 1 hour before kick-off.
Unavailable Players
0 playersAris Thessalonikis
No reported absences
Iraklis 1908
No reported absences
Betting Strategy
High-probability picks are the most likely outcomes. Value selections are markets where our model's probability sits above the price implied by the odds. They will not always come in, but the odds are in your favour over time.
Yellow Card Prediction
Christos Vergetis has been appointed as the referee for this fixture. We don't yet have enough recent fixtures officiated by Christos Vergetis to give a confident card-market projection. Our default lean is under 3.5 yellow cards at 1.95.
Corner Prediction
Aris Thessalonikis have averaged 5.9 corners per match at home; Iraklis 1908 2.0 on the road. Combined that projects roughly 5.0 corners in this fixture. Our pick is under 9.5 corners at 1.80.
Player Stats Bet
Aris Thessalonikis have generated 1.60 xG per game across their recent matches, winning 42% of them. They put 6.1 shots on target per match, giving their attackers the volume needed to land a goal-involvement bet. Aris Thessalonikis player to score at 1.85 looks well supported by the data.
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The Daily Punt Analysis Team
Data-driven football predictions and betting tips
This forecast was built by the The Daily Punt Analysis Team using our in-house statistical model. We feed the model two layers of data for every fixture: each team's recent expected goals (xG and xGA) and their actual goals scored and conceded, split by home and away venue. The numbers run through a Poisson distribution that produces a probability for every possible scoreline, which we then convert into fair odds for the 1X2, correct score, BTTS, and over/under markets.
Before publishing, we cross-check our fair odds against the prices the major bookmakers are offering. Where a bookmaker is paying out more than our model says is mathematically fair, we flag that market as a value bet on this page.